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Hapoel Kfar Saba vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Hapoel Kfar Saba
Hapoel Kfar Saba
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
3/20/2021Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 26HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Hapoel Kfar Saba35%
×Draw29%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.13
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 100 away

creates per match

Hapoel Kfar Saba
0.75
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.14

allows per match

Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.16
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.51

finishing

Hapoel Kfar Saba+0.00on par
Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kfar Saba ↓

Ironi Kiryat Shmona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hapoel Kfar Saba or draw
64%
Hapoel Kfar Saba or Ironi Kiryat Shmona
71%
Draw or Ironi Kiryat Shmona
65%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kfar Saba wins by 2+
14%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hapoel Kfar Saba 1+ goals
68%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 2+ goals
31%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 3+ goals
11%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals
68%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals
32%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kfar Saba (draw refunded)
49%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kfar Saba at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.16 · 32 matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.51 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kfar Saba attack 0.75 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.13

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 1.14 + Hapoel Kfar Saba defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Hapoel Kfar Saba scores more
35%
level
29%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more
36%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Hapoel Kfar Saba 0–1 Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Ironi Kiryat Shmona beat Hapoel Kfar Saba 1-0 in Ligat Ha'al on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at HaMoshava Stadium in Petach-Tikva.