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Inverness CT vs Raith Rovers — League Cup 2018

Inverness CT
Inverness CT
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Raith Rovers
Raith Rovers
7/20/2019League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 5Tulloch Caledonian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Inverness CT63%
×Draw20%
Raith Rovers17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inverness CT
2.13
Raith Rovers
1.01

Inverness CT creates 111% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

creates per match

Inverness CT
2.25
Raith Rovers
1.27

allows per match

Inverness CT
0.75
Raith Rovers
2.00

finishing

Inverness CT+0.00on par
Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inverness CT ↓

Raith Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Inverness CT or draw
83%
Inverness CT or Raith Rovers
80%
Draw or Raith Rovers
37%

Winning margin

Inverness CT wins by 2+
39%
Raith Rovers wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Inverness CT 1+ goals
88%
Inverness CT 2+ goals
63%
Inverness CT 3+ goals
35%
Raith Rovers 1+ goals
64%
Raith Rovers 2+ goals
27%
Raith Rovers 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Inverness CT (draw refunded)
79%
Raith Rovers (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inverness CT at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Raith Rovers away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inverness CT attack 2.25 + Raith Rovers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Raith Rovers attack 1.27 + Inverness CT defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Inverness CT scores more
63%
level
20%
Raith Rovers scores more
17%

Inverness CT at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Inverness CT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Inverness CT 4–1 Raith Rovers

Inverness CT beat Raith Rovers 4-1 in League Cup on July 20, 2019.

The match was played at Tulloch Caledonian Stadium in Inverness.