Internacional 3–1 Independiente Medellin

Internacional

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Independiente Medellin

Luiz Adriano 27', 22'

Maurício 3'

L. Pons 50'

6/28/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 6Estádio José Pinheiro Borda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Internacional54%

×Draw23%

Independiente Medellin24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InternacionalExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.15

Internacional

1.85

Independiente Medellin

1.15

Internacional creates 61% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 15 away

2.04

creates per match

1.33

0.96

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Internacional

2.04

Independiente Medellin

1.33

allows per match

Internacional

0.96

Independiente Medellin

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Internacional or draw

76%

Internacional or Independiente Medellin

77%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

46%

Winning margin

Internacional wins by 2+

30%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Internacional 1+ goals

84%

Internacional 2+ goals

55%

Internacional 3+ goals

28%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

68%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

32%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Internacional (draw refunded)

69%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.96 · 23 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional attack 2.04 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.85

Independiente Medellin attack 1.33 + Internacional defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Internacional scores more

54%

level

23%

Independiente Medellin scores more

24%

Internacional at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Luiz Adriano

Internacional · F

8.9

Match Events

3'

Maurício↳ Luiz Adriano

22'

Luiz Adriano↳ Maurício

27'

Luiz Adriano↳ Maurício

29'

D. Loaiza← J. Cabezas

46'

Rômulo

46'

Jaime Alvarado

46'

Pedro Henrique← Luiz Adriano

50'

L. Pons↳ E. Cetré

52'

Luciano Pons

60'

E. Valencia← E. Cetré

60'

E. Batalla← M. Monsalve

63'

65'

67'

80'

82'

D. Quiñónes← D. Torres

86'

Jean Dias← Pedro Henrique

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InternacionalIndependiente

Overview

41%Possession59%

12Total Shots5

7Corners3

11Fouls18

Shots

12Total Shots5

5On Target1

6Off Target3

1Blocked1

5Inside Box2

7Outside Box3

Passing

41%Possession59%

369Total Passes527

288Accurate Passes438

78%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1