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Independiente Medellin vs Internacional — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Internacional
Internacional
Alemão 54'
4/27/2022CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 3Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Independiente Medellin50%
×Draw27%
Internacional23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
1.44
Internacional
0.89

Independiente Medellin creates 62% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
2.11
Internacional
0.89

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
0.89
Internacional
0.78

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par
Internacional+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Internacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
77%
Independiente Medellin or Internacional
73%
Draw or Internacional
50%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
25%
Internacional wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
76%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
42%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
18%
Internacional 1+ goals
59%
Internacional 2+ goals
22%
Internacional 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
68%
Internacional (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Internacional away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 2.11 + Internacional defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.44

Internacional attack 0.89 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
50%
level
27%
Internacional scores more
23%

Independiente Medellin at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
DanielInternacionalInternacional · G
9.2

Match Events

18'
Vitão
46'
J. Arboleda← J. Mosquera
54'
Alemão↳ Rodrigo Dourado
59'
E. López← D. Loaiza
67'
Maurício← Wanderson
67'
David← Alemão
71'
D. Cambindo← A. Arregui
72'
Javier Méndez
75'
J. Cardoso← Rodrigo Dourado
75'
G. Mercado← Vitão
78'
B. Castrillón← V. Hernández
88'
Liziero← Gabriel
90+5'
Victor Moreno

Possession

48%Independiente

Shots

14Independiente

Pass accuracy

50%Independiente

Statistics

IndependienteInternacional
Overview
48%Possession52%
14Total Shots9
6Corners3
15Fouls8
Shots
14Total Shots9
9On Target5
3Off Target2
2Blocked2
9Inside Box7
5Outside Box2
Passing
48%Possession52%
441Total Passes497
354Accurate Passes400
80%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves9
Discipline
15Fouls8
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Independiente Medellin vs Internacional

Internacional beat Independiente Medellin 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 27, 2022.

Goals: Alemão (54').

Internacional controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas in Pereira.