Independiente Medellin 1–1 Internacional

Independiente Medellin

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Internacional

V. Moreno 52'

Alan Patrick 86'

4/5/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 1Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Independiente Medellin47%

×Draw29%

Internacional24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchInternacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.80

Independiente Medellin

1.25

Internacional

0.80

Independiente Medellin creates 56% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 23 away

1.62

creates per match

0.83

0.77

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.62

Internacional

0.83

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.77

Internacional

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Internacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Internacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

76%

Independiente Medellin or Internacional

71%

Draw or Internacional

53%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

21%

Internacional wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

71%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

36%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

13%

Internacional 1+ goals

55%

Internacional 2+ goals

19%

Internacional 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

66%

Internacional (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Internacional away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.62 + Internacional defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.25

Internacional attack 0.83 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

47%

level

29%

Internacional scores more

24%

Independiente Medellin at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Alan Patrick

Internacional · M

8.3

Match Events

52'

V. Moreno↳ A. Cadavid

57'

D. Torres

60'

E. Cetre

61'

Rodrigo Moledo← G. Mercado

61'

Pedro Henrique← Maurício

70'

Lucca← Luiz Adriano

70'

Gabriel Baralhas← J. Cardoso

82'

Y. Gómez← E. Cetré

82'

D. Loaiza← E. Batalla

86'

Alan Patrick

89'

D. Cambindo← L. Pons

90'

Matheus Dias← Alan Patrick

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteInternacional

Overview

49%Possession51%

10Total Shots13

1Corners3

13Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots13

4On Target6

2Off Target1

4Blocked6

4Inside Box8

6Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

424Total Passes450

348Accurate Passes364

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls10

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides3