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Internacional vs Independiente Medellin — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Internacional
Internacional
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
Edenílson 57', 19'
5/17/2022CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 5Estádio José Pinheiro Borda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Internacional55%
×Draw23%
Independiente Medellin23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional
1.83
Independiente Medellin
1.09

Internacional creates 68% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Internacional
1.88
Independiente Medellin
1.44

allows per match

Internacional
0.75
Independiente Medellin
1.78

finishing

Internacional+0.00on par
Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Internacional or draw
77%
Internacional or Independiente Medellin
77%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
45%

Winning margin

Internacional wins by 2+
31%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Internacional 1+ goals
84%
Internacional 2+ goals
54%
Internacional 3+ goals
28%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
66%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
30%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Internacional (draw refunded)
71%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional attack 1.88 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.83

Independiente Medellin attack 1.44 + Internacional defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Internacional scores more
55%
level
23%
Independiente Medellin scores more
23%

Internacional at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
EdenílsonInternacionalInternacional · M
8.3

Match Events

19'
Edenílson
20'
Edenilson
40'
Juan Guillermo Arboleda
46'
F. Pardo← Y. Gómez
57'
Edenílson
66'
Liziero← C. de Pena
66'
Alemão← David
66'
B. Castrillón← J. Díaz
66'
A. Ricaurte← V. Hernández
71'
Moisés← Renê
71'
Heitor← F. Bustos
81'
Estevão← Maurício
83'
D. Cambindo← L. Pons
83'
J. Cuesta← J. Pineda

Possession

51%Internacional

Shots

20Internacional

Pass accuracy

48%Internacional

Statistics

InternacionalIndependiente
Overview
51%Possession49%
20Total Shots15
11Corners4
17Fouls11
Shots
20Total Shots15
8On Target4
6Off Target8
6Blocked3
13Inside Box5
7Outside Box10
Passing
51%Possession49%
493Total Passes492
396Accurate Passes416
80%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
4Saves6
Discipline
17Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides5

Match Recap: Internacional vs Independiente Medellin

Internacional beat Independiente Medellin 2-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 17, 2022.

Goals: Edenílson (19', 57').

Internacional controlled possession (51%) and registered 20 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul.