Internacional 3–3 Club Nacional: Result & Stats

Internacional

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Club Nacional

Fernando 73'

A. Bernabei 67'

Alan Patrick 45' (pen)

S. Coates 43'

L. Boggio 10'

J. Millan 6'

4/23/2025

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 3Estádio José Pinheiro Borda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Internacional54%

×Draw20%

Club Nacional25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InternacionalExpected goals in this matchClub Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.50

Internacional

2.25

Club Nacional

1.50

Internacional creates 50% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

2.00

creates per match

1.50

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Internacional

2.00

Club Nacional

1.50

allows per match

Internacional

1.50

Club Nacional

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional+0.00on par

Club Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional ↓

Club Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Internacional or draw

75%

Internacional or Club Nacional

80%

Draw or Club Nacional

46%

Winning margin

Internacional wins by 2+

33%

Club Nacional wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Internacional 1+ goals

89%

Internacional 2+ goals

65%

Internacional 3+ goals

39%

Club Nacional 1+ goals

78%

Club Nacional 2+ goals

44%

Club Nacional 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Internacional (draw refunded)

68%

Club Nacional (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Club Nacional away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional attack 2.00 + Club Nacional defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Club Nacional attack 1.50 + Internacional defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Internacional scores more

54%

level

20%

Club Nacional scores more

25%

Internacional at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

O. Romero

Internacional · M

8.3

Match Events

6'

J. Millan↳ C. Oliva

10'

L. Boggio↳ L. M. Villalba Jaume

28'

E. Valencia

43'

S. Coates

45'

Alan PatrickPenalty

46'

R. Borre← Gabriel Carvalho

48'

R. Borre

60'

O. Romero← Bruno Henrique

61'

Vitinho← B. Aguirre

61'

Eduardo Vargas← L. M. Villalba Jaume

61'

Y. Rodriguez← J. Recoba

63'

Wesley

65'

Victor Gabriel

67'

A. Bernabei↳ O. Romero

71'

N. Rodriguez← E. Ancheta

73'

Fernando↳ Alan Patrick

83'

Ramon← Wesley

83'

Nathan← A. Bernabei

84'

L. Morales← C. Oliva

84'

D. Herazo← N. Lopez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InternacionalClub

Overview

72%Possession28%

14Total Shots9

2.76Expected Goals (xG)1.94

5Corners7

13Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots9

6On Target5

7Off Target2

1Blocked2

12Inside Box7

2Outside Box2

Passing

72%Possession28%

470Total Passes176

409Accurate Passes103

87%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

-0.93Goals Prevented-0.93

Discipline

13Fouls9

4Yellow Cards0

5Offsides2