Club Nacional 0–2 Internacional: Result & Stats

Club Nacional

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Internacional

B. Aguirre 90'

Ricardo Mathias 45'

5/15/2025

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 5Gran Parque Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Club Nacional39%

×Draw32%

Internacional29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club NacionalExpected goals in this matchInternacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

0.85

Club Nacional

1.03

Internacional

0.85

Club Nacional creates 21% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

0.86

creates per match

1.00

0.71

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Club Nacional

0.86

Internacional

1.00

allows per match

Club Nacional

0.71

Internacional

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Nacional+0.00on par

Internacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Nacional ↓

Internacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Club Nacional or draw

71%

Club Nacional or Internacional

68%

Draw or Internacional

61%

Winning margin

Club Nacional wins by 2+

15%

Internacional wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Club Nacional 1+ goals

64%

Club Nacional 2+ goals

28%

Club Nacional 3+ goals

9%

Internacional 1+ goals

57%

Internacional 2+ goals

21%

Internacional 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Club Nacional (draw refunded)

57%

Internacional (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Nacional at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Internacional away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Nacional attack 0.86 + Internacional defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.03

Internacional attack 1.00 + Club Nacional defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Club Nacional scores more

39%

level

32%

Internacional scores more

29%

Club Nacional at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Club Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

B. Aguirre

Internacional · D

8.9

Match Events

26'

Victor Gabriel

38'

P. Calione← S. Coates

45'

46'

46'

53'

62'

Bruno Tabata← Ricardo Mathias

63'

Juninho← Victor Gabriel

63'

Gustavo Prado← Bruno Henrique

69'

D. Herazo← G. Baez Corradi

74'

Lucca← Wesley

75'

R. Otero← L. Boggio

90+9'

Luis Mejía

90+4'

Paolo Calione

90'

B. Aguirre↳ Alan Patrick

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubInternacional

Overview

51%Possession49%

16Total Shots11

0.53Expected Goals (xG)1.84

7Corners4

5Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots11

3On Target6

8Off Target3

5Blocked2

8Inside Box10

8Outside Box1

Passing

51%Possession49%

407Total Passes408

317Accurate Passes320

78%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

0.82Goals Prevented0.82

Discipline

5Fouls16

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides2

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Club Nacional 0–2 Internacional

Internacional beat Club Nacional 2-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 15, 2025.

Goals: Ricardo Mathias (45'), B. Aguirre (90').

Club Nacional controlled possession (51%) and registered 16 shots to 11.

The match was played at Gran Parque Central in Montevideo.

Club Nacional vs Internacional — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Club Nacional 0–2 Internacional