Internacional 2–0 Club Nacional: Result & Stats

Internacional

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Club Nacional

Paolo Guerrero 90'

Rodrigo Moledo 16'

7/31/2019

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 8th FinalsEstádio Beira Rio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Internacional55%

×Draw21%

Club Nacional23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InternacionalExpected goals in this matchClub Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.27

Internacional

2.05

Club Nacional

1.27

Internacional creates 61% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

2.00

creates per match

1.22

1.33

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Internacional

2.00

Club Nacional

1.22

allows per match

Internacional

1.33

Club Nacional

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional+0.00on par

Club Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional ↓

Club Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Internacional or draw

77%

Internacional or Club Nacional

79%

Draw or Club Nacional

45%

Winning margin

Internacional wins by 2+

33%

Club Nacional wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Internacional 1+ goals

87%

Internacional 2+ goals

61%

Internacional 3+ goals

33%

Club Nacional 1+ goals

72%

Club Nacional 2+ goals

36%

Club Nacional 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Internacional (draw refunded)

70%

Club Nacional (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Club Nacional away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional attack 2.00 + Club Nacional defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.05

Club Nacional attack 1.22 + Internacional defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Internacional scores more

55%

level

21%

Club Nacional scores more

23%

Internacional at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Andrés D'Alessandro

Internacional · F

8.2

Match Events

16'

Rodrigo Moledo↳ Andrés D'Alessandro

22'

Guzmán Corujo

26'

Bruno

64'

Rafael Sóbis← Nico López

68'

Chori Castro← Kevin Ramírez

70'

Nonato← Rodrigo Lindoso

73'

Pablo Barrientos← Gustavo Lorenzetti

79'

Sebastián Fernández← Matías Zunino

84'

Nonato

89'

Wellington Silva← Andrés D'Alessandro

90'

Paolo Guerrero↳ Rafael Sóbis

90'

Gabriel Neves

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InternacionalClub

Overview

58%Possession42%

22Total Shots11

4Corners5

17Fouls17

Shots

22Total Shots11

8On Target1

10Off Target6

4Blocked4

14Inside Box4

8Outside Box7

Passing

58%Possession42%

489Total Passes332

400Accurate Passes250

82%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

17Fouls17

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0