Internacional 2–2 Club Nacional: Result & Stats

Internacional

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Club Nacional

C. de Pena 83'

G. Mercado 11'

F. Noguera 90+1'

D. Zabala 38'

5/3/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 3Estádio José Pinheiro Borda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Internacional55%

×Draw21%

Club Nacional23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InternacionalExpected goals in this matchClub Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.27

Internacional

2.05

Club Nacional

1.27

Internacional creates 61% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

2.00

creates per match

1.22

1.33

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Internacional

2.00

Club Nacional

1.22

allows per match

Internacional

1.33

Club Nacional

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional+0.00on par

Club Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional ↓

Club Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Internacional or draw

77%

Internacional or Club Nacional

79%

Draw or Club Nacional

45%

Winning margin

Internacional wins by 2+

33%

Club Nacional wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Internacional 1+ goals

87%

Internacional 2+ goals

61%

Internacional 3+ goals

33%

Club Nacional 1+ goals

72%

Club Nacional 2+ goals

36%

Club Nacional 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Internacional (draw refunded)

70%

Club Nacional (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Club Nacional away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional attack 2.00 + Club Nacional defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.05

Club Nacional attack 1.22 + Internacional defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Internacional scores more

55%

level

21%

Club Nacional scores more

23%

Internacional at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

G. Mercado

Internacional · D

7.9

Match Events

8'

Wanderson

11'

G. Mercado↳ Wanderson

25'

31'

38'

59'

63'

F. Fagúndez← G. Pereiro

64'

Pedro Henrique← Wanderson

64'

F. Bustos← Igor Gomes

64'

M. Montiel← Y. Rodríguez

79'

Pedro HenriqueGoal cancelled

81'

B. Damiani← I. Ramírez

82'

Lucca← Maurício

82'

Luiz Adriano← Alemão

83'

C. de Pena↳ Lucca

86'

Matheus Dias← Gustavo Campanharo

90+6'

Gabriel Mercado

90'

F. Martínez← A. Trezza

90+1'

F. Noguera↳ D. Polenta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InternacionalClub

Overview

71%Possession29%

21Total Shots11

10Corners1

7Fouls14

Shots

21Total Shots11

10On Target2

6Off Target7

5Blocked2

9Inside Box7

12Outside Box4

Passing

71%Possession29%

583Total Passes237

504Accurate Passes152

86%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

0Saves8

Discipline

7Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Internacional 2–2 Club Nacional

Internacional and Club Nacional drew 2-2 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 3, 2023.

Goals: G. Mercado (11'), D. Zabala (38'), C. de Pena (83'), F. Noguera (90+1').

Internacional controlled possession (71%) and registered 21 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul.

Internacional vs Club Nacional — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Internacional 2–2 Club Nacional