Internacional de Madrid 2–2 Getafe II

Internacional de Madrid

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Getafe II

Rubén Ramos 79' (pen)

Adrià de Mesa 47'

Ángel Algobia 16'

Alex Rodriguez 3'

2/14/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 14Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Internacional de Madrid45%

×Draw31%

Getafe II23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchGetafe II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.72

Internacional de Madrid

1.13

Getafe II

0.72

Internacional de Madrid creates 57% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

1.17

creates per match

0.62

0.83

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.17

Getafe II

0.62

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

0.83

Getafe II

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Getafe II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Getafe II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

77%

Internacional de Madrid or Getafe II

69%

Draw or Getafe II

55%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

19%

Getafe II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

68%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

31%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

11%

Getafe II 1+ goals

51%

Getafe II 2+ goals

16%

Getafe II 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

66%

Getafe II (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Getafe II away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.17 + Getafe II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Getafe II attack 0.62 + Internacional de Madrid defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

45%

level

31%

Getafe II scores more

23%

Internacional de Madrid at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Alex Rodriguez

16'

Ángel Algobia

46'

Adrià de Mesa← Adrián Mance

46'

Sergio Arribas← Junior

46'

Víctor Villacañas← David Barral

47'

Adrià de Mesa

57'

Dani Salas← Giovanni

62'

Santi García← M. Keita

63'

Jordi← Iván Amores

70'

Alvar Herrero← Franco

79'

Rubén RamosPenalty

89'

Marcos← Reguera

Internacional

Getafe

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

46'▲Adrià de Mesa←▼Adrián Mance

46'▲Sergio Arribas←▼Junior

46'▲Víctor Villacañas←▼David Barral

70'▲Alvar Herrero←▼Franco

89'▲Marcos←▼Reguera

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

MesaArribasVillacañasHerreroMarcosAguileraJiménezValero

Manager: Emilio Ferreras

57'▲Dani Salas←▼Giovanni

62'▲Santi García←▼M. Keita

63'▲Jordi←▼Iván Amores

Getafe II substitutes

SalasGarcíaJordiSocorroSánchezChinchuAkuruguSánchezVicente

Primera División RFEF - Group 5: Internacional de Madrid 2–2 Getafe II

Internacional de Madrid and Getafe II drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 14, 2021.

Goals: Alex Rodriguez (3'), Ángel Algobia (16'), Adrià de Mesa (47'), Rubén Ramos (79' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón in Villaviciosa de Odón.

Internacional de Madrid vs Getafe II — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 5: Internacional de Madrid 2–2 Getafe II