Getafe II 0–1 Internacional de Madrid

Getafe II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Internacional de Madrid

David Alba 2' (OG)

12/20/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 5Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Getafe II28%

×Draw30%

Internacional de Madrid42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Getafe IIExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.16

Getafe II

0.89

Internacional de Madrid

1.16

Internacional de Madrid creates 30% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

0.77

creates per match

1.08

1.23

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Getafe II

0.77

Internacional de Madrid

1.08

allows per match

Getafe II

1.23

Internacional de Madrid

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Getafe II+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe II ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–115%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Getafe II or draw

58%

Getafe II or Internacional de Madrid

70%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

72%

Winning margin

Getafe II wins by 2+

10%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Getafe II 1+ goals

59%

Getafe II 2+ goals

22%

Getafe II 3+ goals

6%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

69%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

32%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Getafe II (draw refunded)

40%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Getafe II at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Getafe II attack 0.77 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.08 + Getafe II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Getafe II scores more

28%

level

30%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

42%

Internacional de Madrid at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

David AlbaOwn goal

46'

Ángel Algobia← Relu

46'

Dani Salas← Santi García

51'

Reguera← Franco

70'

Miguel Ángel← M. Keita

70'

Chicha Aguilera← Adrià de Mesa

70'

Fran Cortés← Sergio Arribas

83'

Víctor Villacañas← Rubén Ramos

85'

David Camacho← Giovanni

Getafe

Internacional

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Emilio Ferreras

46'▲Ángel Algobia←▼Relu

46'▲Dani Salas←▼Santi García

70'▲Miguel Ángel←▼M. Keita

85'▲David Camacho←▼Giovanni

Getafe II substitutes

AlgobiaSalasÁngelCamachoRodriguezBenítezNowak

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

51'▲Reguera←▼Franco

70'▲Chicha Aguilera←▼Adrià de Mesa

70'▲Fran Cortés←▼Sergio Arribas

83'▲Víctor Villacañas←▼Rubén Ramos

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

RegueraAguileraCortésVillacañasRashitiMoyanoGarranchoMarcosNandi

Primera División RFEF - Group 5: Getafe II 0–1 Internacional de Madrid

Internacional de Madrid beat Getafe II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 20, 2020.

Goals: David Alba (2' o.g.).

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 1 in Getafe.

Getafe II vs Internacional de Madrid — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 5: Getafe II 0–1 Internacional de Madrid