Internacional de Madrid 2–1 Getafe II

Internacional de Madrid

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Getafe II

N. Arkine 87'

Aythami Perera 14'

Ángel Sánchez 40' (pen)

12/22/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Boadilla del Monte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Internacional de Madrid53%

×Draw24%

Getafe II23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchGetafe II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.05

Internacional de Madrid

1.70

Getafe II

1.05

Internacional de Madrid creates 62% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 14 away

1.82

creates per match

0.86

1.24

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.82

Getafe II

0.86

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.24

Getafe II

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Getafe II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Getafe II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

77%

Internacional de Madrid or Getafe II

76%

Draw or Getafe II

47%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

29%

Getafe II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

82%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

51%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

24%

Getafe II 1+ goals

65%

Getafe II 2+ goals

28%

Getafe II 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

69%

Getafe II (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Getafe II away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + Getafe II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.70

Getafe II attack 0.86 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

53%

level

24%

Getafe II scores more

23%

Internacional de Madrid at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Aythami Perera

33'

Gabriel Furtado← Borja Sánchez

40'

Ángel SánchezPenalty

46'

Junior← Adrián Mance

66'

Hugo Duro← Alfon González

67'

Chevi← David Del Pozo

67'

N. Arkine← Alvar Herrero

84'

Pesca← Juan Iglesias

87'

N. Arkine

Internacional

Getafe

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Marcos Jiménez

46'▲Junior←▼Adrián Mance

67'▲Chevi←▼David Del Pozo

67'▲N. Arkine←▼Alvar Herrero

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

JuniorCheviArkineNúñezArthurGallardoValero

Manager: Diego Montoya

33'▲Gabriel Furtado←▼Borja Sánchez

66'▲Hugo Duro←▼Alfon González

84'▲Pesca←▼Juan Iglesias

Getafe II substitutes

FurtadoDuroPescaRiveroVargasDaríoSerrano

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Internacional de Madrid 2–1 Getafe II

Internacional de Madrid beat Getafe II 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 22, 2019.

Goals: Aythami Perera (14'), Ángel Sánchez (40' pen), N. Arkine (87').

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Boadilla del Monte in Boadilla del Monte.

Internacional de Madrid vs Getafe II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Internacional de Madrid 2–1 Getafe II