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Getafe II vs Internacional de Madrid — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Getafe II
Getafe II
CANC
22:00
Internacional de Madrid
Internacional de Madrid
5/9/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 37Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Getafe II42%
×Draw30%
Internacional de Madrid29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Getafe II
1.18
Internacional de Madrid
0.92

Getafe II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 33 away

creates per match

Getafe II
0.93
Internacional de Madrid
0.76

allows per match

Getafe II
1.07
Internacional de Madrid
1.42

finishing

Getafe II+0.00on par
Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe II ↓

Internacional de Madrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Getafe II or draw
71%
Getafe II or Internacional de Madrid
70%
Draw or Internacional de Madrid
58%

Winning margin

Getafe II wins by 2+
18%
Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Getafe II 1+ goals
69%
Getafe II 2+ goals
33%
Getafe II 3+ goals
12%
Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals
60%
Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals
23%
Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Getafe II (draw refunded)
59%
Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Getafe II at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Getafe II attack 0.93 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.18

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + Getafe II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Getafe II scores more
42%
level
30%
Internacional de Madrid scores more
29%

Getafe II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Getafe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Getafe II vs Internacional de Madrid — Match Preview

Getafe II face Internacional de Madrid on May 9, 2020 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Getafe II host Internacional de Madrid at Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 2.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.