Internacional de Madrid 4–2 Extremadura

Internacional de Madrid

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Extremadura

Álvaro Martín 90+5'

Arthur 56'

David Barral 37'

Ramón Blázquez 31'

Dani Murillo 11'

Javi Parada 7'

1/30/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Internacional de Madrid61%

×Draw21%

Extremadura18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchExtremadura

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.03

Internacional de Madrid

2.04

Extremadura

1.03

Internacional de Madrid creates 98% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 12 away

1.82

creates per match

0.83

1.24

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.82

Extremadura

0.83

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.24

Extremadura

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Extremadura+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Extremadura →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

82%

Internacional de Madrid or Extremadura

79%

Draw or Extremadura

39%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

37%

Extremadura wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

87%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

60%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

33%

Extremadura 1+ goals

64%

Extremadura 2+ goals

28%

Extremadura 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

77%

Extremadura (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Extremadura away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + Extremadura defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.04

Extremadura attack 0.83 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

61%

level

21%

Extremadura scores more

18%

Internacional de Madrid at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

Javi Parada

11'

Dani Murillo

21'

A. Ndiaye Dione

31'

Ramón Blázquez

37'

David Barral

41'

M. Parra Gutierrez

47'

A. Masogo

56'

Pitu

56'

Arthur

57'

Alberto Gil← Pitu

57'

Álex Zambrano← Álex Masogo

59'

Fran Rosa← Manuel Mulero

70'

David García← Pau Silva

83'

Kenneth Soler← Alberto Gil

90+4'

Álvaro Montero← Rubén Ramos

90+5'

Álvaro Martín

Internacional

Extremadura

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

57'▲Alberto Gil←▼Pitu

57'▲Álex Zambrano←▼Álex Masogo

83'▲Kenneth Soler←▼Alberto Gil

90+4'▲Álvaro Montero←▼Rubén Ramos

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

GilZambranoSolerMonteroWashingtonHerreroKolderiuBrulmans

Manager: Manu Mosquera

59'▲Fran Rosa←▼Manuel Mulero

70'▲David García←▼Pau Silva

Extremadura substitutes

RosaGarcíaRodríguez

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Internacional de Madrid 4–2 Extremadura

Internacional de Madrid beat Extremadura 4-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 30, 2022.

Goals: Javi Parada (7'), Dani Murillo (11'), Ramón Blázquez (31'), David Barral (37'), Arthur (56'), Álvaro Martín (90+5').

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón in Villaviciosa de Odón.

Internacional de Madrid vs Extremadura — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Internacional de Madrid 4–2 Extremadura