Internacional de Madrid 1–0 Extremadura

Internacional de Madrid

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Extremadura

Rubén Ramos 90'

4/18/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2nd Phase - 3Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Internacional de Madrid41%

×Draw29%

Extremadura30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchExtremadura

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.96

Internacional de Madrid

1.17

Extremadura

0.96

Internacional de Madrid creates 22% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.17

creates per match

1.08

0.83

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.17

Extremadura

1.08

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

0.83

Extremadura

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Extremadura+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Extremadura →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

70%

Internacional de Madrid or Extremadura

71%

Draw or Extremadura

59%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

17%

Extremadura wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

69%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

33%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

11%

Extremadura 1+ goals

62%

Extremadura 2+ goals

25%

Extremadura 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

58%

Extremadura (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Extremadura away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.17 + Extremadura defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Extremadura attack 1.08 + Internacional de Madrid defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

41%

level

29%

Extremadura scores more

30%

Internacional de Madrid at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

Rubén Ramos← Gonzalo Poley

61'

Sergio Arribas← Adrián Mance

62'

José García← Nando Copete

69'

Adrià de Mesa← David Rabadán

69'

Reguera← David Barral

74'

Víctor Castaño← Víctor Pastrana

78'

Lele← Elías Pérez

82'

Marcos← Víctor Villacañas

90'

Rubén Ramos

Internacional

Extremadura

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

61'▲Rubén Ramos←▼Gonzalo Poley

61'▲Sergio Arribas←▼Adrián Mance

69'▲Adrià de Mesa←▼David Rabadán

69'▲Reguera←▼David Barral

82'▲Marcos←▼Víctor Villacañas

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

RamosArribasMesaRegueraMarcosAguileraJiménezJuniorValero

Manager: Manuel Mosquera

62'▲José García←▼Nando Copete

74'▲Víctor Castaño←▼Víctor Pastrana

78'▲Lele←▼Elías Pérez

Extremadura substitutes

GarcíaCastañoLeleHankinsPerez

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs Extremadura

Internacional de Madrid beat Extremadura 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 18, 2021.

Goals: Rubén Ramos (90').

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón in Villaviciosa de Odón.

Internacional de Madrid vs Extremadura — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs Extremadura