Extremadura 1–2 Internacional de Madrid

Extremadura

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Internacional de Madrid

Rubén Mesa 76'

David Barral 52'

Arthur 48'

11/7/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Estadio Francisco de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Extremadura33%

×Draw26%

Internacional de Madrid41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ExtremaduraExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.38

Extremadura

1.21

Internacional de Madrid

1.38

Internacional de Madrid creates 14% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 33 away

1.00

creates per match

0.76

2.00

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Extremadura

1.00

Internacional de Madrid

0.76

allows per match

Extremadura

2.00

Internacional de Madrid

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Extremadura+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Extremadura or draw

59%

Extremadura or Internacional de Madrid

74%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

67%

Winning margin

Extremadura wins by 2+

14%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Extremadura 1+ goals

70%

Extremadura 2+ goals

34%

Extremadura 3+ goals

12%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

75%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

40%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Extremadura (draw refunded)

45%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura attack 1.00 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.21

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + Extremadura defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Extremadura scores more

33%

level

26%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

41%

Internacional de Madrid at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Lolo Gonzalez

28'

A. Mancebo

48'

Arthur

52'

David Barral

59'

Rubén Mesa← Sandaza

59'

Sebas Coris← Gato

70'

Álvaro Montero← David Barral

72'

76'

79'

81'

90'

Kenneth Soler← Álvaro Martín

90'

Alvar Herrero← Adrián Mance

Extremadura

Internacional

▼

⚽

▼

Arthur

▼

Martín

Reguera

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Manu Mosquera

59'▲Rubén Mesa←▼Sandaza

59'▲Sebas Coris←▼Gato

Extremadura substitutes

MesaCorisLigeroDrammehHidalgoLópez

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

70'▲Álvaro Montero←▼David Barral

79'▲S. Brulmans←▼Arthur

90'▲Kenneth Soler←▼Álvaro Martín

90'▲Alvar Herrero←▼Adrián Mance

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

MonteroBrulmansSolerHerreroGilMasogoSiuArribasKolderiuPituGonzález

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Extremadura 1–2 Internacional de Madrid

Internacional de Madrid beat Extremadura 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 7, 2021.

Goals: Arthur (48'), David Barral (52'), Rubén Mesa (76').

The match was played at Estadio Francisco de la Hera in Almendralejo.

Extremadura vs Internacional de Madrid — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Extremadura 1–2 Internacional de Madrid