Extremadura 1–0 Internacional de Madrid

Extremadura

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Internacional de Madrid

Elías Pérez 59'

5/9/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Francisco de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Extremadura43%

×Draw31%

Internacional de Madrid27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ExtremaduraExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.83

Extremadura

1.13

Internacional de Madrid

0.83

Extremadura creates 36% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.25

creates per match

1.08

0.58

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Extremadura

1.25

Internacional de Madrid

1.08

allows per match

Extremadura

0.58

Internacional de Madrid

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Extremadura+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Extremadura or draw

73%

Extremadura or Internacional de Madrid

69%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

57%

Winning margin

Extremadura wins by 2+

18%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Extremadura 1+ goals

68%

Extremadura 2+ goals

31%

Extremadura 3+ goals

11%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

56%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

20%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Extremadura (draw refunded)

61%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura attack 1.25 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.08 + Extremadura defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Extremadura scores more

43%

level

31%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

27%

Extremadura at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Extremadura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

Adrià de Mesa← Víctor Villacañas

55'

Sergio Arribas← Arthur

59'

Elías Pérez

78'

Nando Copete← Rubén Mesa

83'

Chicha Aguilera← Adrián Mance

83'

Marcos← Carlos Expósito

87'

Franco← Alvar Herrero

89'

Lele← Kike Márquez

89'

M. Drammeh← Toribio

89'

Gonzalo Rodriguez← Nico Hidalgo

Extremadura

Internacional

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Manuel Mosquera

78'▲Nando Copete←▼Rubén Mesa

89'▲Lele←▼Kike Márquez

89'▲M. Drammeh←▼Toribio

89'▲Gonzalo Rodriguez←▼Nico Hidalgo

Extremadura substitutes

CopeteLeleDrammehRodriguezAttipoeGutiérrezHankinsGarcíaPerez

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

55'▲Adrià de Mesa←▼Víctor Villacañas

55'▲Sergio Arribas←▼Arthur

83'▲Chicha Aguilera←▼Adrián Mance

83'▲Marcos←▼Carlos Expósito

87'▲Franco←▼Alvar Herrero

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

MesaArribasAguileraMarcosFrancoJiménezValero

Match Recap: Extremadura vs Internacional de Madrid

Extremadura beat Internacional de Madrid 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on May 9, 2021.

Goals: Elías Pérez (59').

The match was played at Estadio Francisco de la Hera in Almendralejo.

Extremadura vs Internacional de Madrid — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Extremadura vs Internacional de Madrid