Internacional de Bogota 0–0 Águilas Doradas

Internacional de Bogota

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Águilas Doradas

8/18/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 6Estadio Enrique Olaya Herrera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Internacional de Bogota41%

×Draw29%

Águilas Doradas31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de BogotaExpected goals in this matchÁguilas Doradas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.00

Internacional de Bogota

1.20

Águilas Doradas

1.00

Internacional de Bogota creates 20% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 35 away

1.28

creates per match

0.94

1.06

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota

1.28

Águilas Doradas

0.94

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota

1.06

Águilas Doradas

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Águilas Doradas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw

69%

Internacional de Bogota or Águilas Doradas

71%

Draw or Águilas Doradas

59%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

17%

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

70%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

34%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

12%

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals

63%

Águilas Doradas 2+ goals

26%

Águilas Doradas 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

57%

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.06 · 50 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.28 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Águilas Doradas attack 0.94 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more

41%

level

29%

Águilas Doradas scores more

31%

Internacional de Bogota at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

L. Riascos

Internacional de Bogota · D

7.3

Match Events

22'

30'

46'

46'

53'

55'

J. Lloreda← J. Carvajal

62'

Martín Payares

71'

A. Estacio← F. Salazar

71'

A. Vásquez← J. Pineda

76'

N. Lara← V. Moreno

85'

D. Castillo← S. Gómez

90+3'

Jesús Rivas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InternacionalÁguilas

Overview

53%Possession47%

5Total Shots6

3Corners5

19Fouls10

Shots

5Total Shots6

1On Target3

3Off Target2

1Blocked1

2Inside Box2

3Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

350Total Passes311

257Accurate Passes225

73%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls10

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Internacional de Bogota vs Águilas Doradas

Internacional de Bogota and Águilas Doradas drew 0-0 in Primera A on August 18, 2024.

Internacional de Bogota controlled possession (53%) and registered 5 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Olaya Herrera in Bogotá, D.C..

Internacional de Bogota vs Águilas Doradas — Primera A 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Internacional de Bogota vs Águilas Doradas