Águilas Doradas 1–1 Internacional de Bogota

Águilas Doradas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Internacional de Bogota

Jesús Rivas 73'

É. Ricardo 30'

2/13/2024

Primera A · Apertura - 6Estadio Alberto Grisales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Águilas Doradas50%

×Draw26%

Internacional de Bogota25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Águilas DoradasExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Bogota

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.01

Águilas Doradas

1.54

Internacional de Bogota

1.01

Águilas Doradas creates 52% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 51 away

1.23

creates per match

0.82

1.20

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Águilas Doradas

1.23

Internacional de Bogota

0.82

allows per match

Águilas Doradas

1.20

Internacional de Bogota

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Internacional de Bogota →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw

75%

Águilas Doradas or Internacional de Bogota

74%

Draw or Internacional de Bogota

50%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+

25%

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals

79%

Águilas Doradas 2+ goals

45%

Águilas Doradas 3+ goals

20%

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

64%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

27%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)

67%

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.86 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.23 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.54

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.82 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more

50%

level

26%

Internacional de Bogota scores more

25%

Águilas Doradas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

É. Ricardo

Internacional de Bogota · M

7.7

Match Events

16'

Andres Correa

21'

Mateo Puerta

30'

É. Ricardo

46'

M. Garavito← S. Rodríguez

46'

Jesús Rivas← E. Rivas

50'

Felipe PardoPenalty cancelled

54'

56'

59'

61'

66'

71'

73'

76'

W. De La Rosa← F. Pardo

80'

J. Díaz← J. Caballero

84'

J. Lloreda← K. Viveros

90+5'

Jorge Ramos

90+4'

D. Camacho← F. Viáfara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ÁguilasInternacional

Overview

60%Possession40%

10Total Shots17

7Corners4

18Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots17

3On Target4

3Off Target8

4Blocked5

5Inside Box5

5Outside Box12

Passing

60%Possession40%

455Total Passes299

350Accurate Passes216

77%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls14

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3

Primera A: Águilas Doradas 1–1 Internacional de Bogota

Águilas Doradas and Internacional de Bogota drew 1-1 in Primera A on February 13, 2024.

Goals: É. Ricardo (30'), Jesús Rivas (73').

Águilas Doradas controlled possession (60%) and registered 10 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Grisales in Rionegro, Antioquia.

Águilas Doradas vs Internacional de Bogota — Primera A 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Águilas Doradas 1–1 Internacional de Bogota