Águilas Doradas 1–1 Internacional de Bogota

Águilas Doradas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Internacional de Bogota

J. Caballero 20'

E. Ricardo 83'

1/27/2025

Primera A · Apertura - 1Estadio Alberto Grisales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Águilas Doradas48%

×Draw26%

Internacional de Bogota26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Águilas DoradasExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Bogota

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.00

Águilas Doradas

1.47

Internacional de Bogota

1.00

Águilas Doradas creates 47% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 57 away

1.20

creates per match

0.79

1.22

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Águilas Doradas

1.20

Internacional de Bogota

0.79

allows per match

Águilas Doradas

1.22

Internacional de Bogota

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Internacional de Bogota →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw

74%

Águilas Doradas or Internacional de Bogota

74%

Draw or Internacional de Bogota

52%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+

24%

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals

77%

Águilas Doradas 2+ goals

43%

Águilas Doradas 3+ goals

18%

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

63%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

26%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)

65%

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.22 · 49 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.74 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.20 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.47

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.79 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more

48%

level

26%

Internacional de Bogota scores more

26%

Águilas Doradas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

S. Orozco

Internacional de Bogota · M

7.5

Match Events

20'

J. Caballero

46'

A. Plata← J. Salazar

46'

H. Mancilla← A. Oliveros

46'

E. Ricardo← A. Del Valle

46'

F. Chaverra← D. Polanco

60'

S. Tamara← F. Acosta

60'

S. Mayo← S. Orozco

62'

Harrinson Mancilla

66'

A. Vasquez← J. Pineda

80'

J. Escobar Salcedo← C. Martinez

80'

Y. Abonia← S. Lopez

81'

Geovanni Banguera

83'

E. Ricardo

88'

J. E. Avalo Trejos← J. Caballero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ÁguilasInternacional

Overview

57%Possession43%

9Total Shots11

5Corners1

15Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots11

4On Target2

5Off Target5

0Blocked4

7Inside Box4

2Outside Box7

Passing

57%Possession43%

434Total Passes320

333Accurate Passes227

77%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls9

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1