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Internacional de Bogota vs Águilas Doradas — Primera A 2018

Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
10/27/2021Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 16Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 169+ matches

Internacional de Bogota44%
×Draw29%
Águilas Doradas28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional de Bogota
1.26
Águilas Doradas
0.94

Internacional de Bogota creates 34% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 170 away

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota
1.22
Águilas Doradas
0.97

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota
0.90
Águilas Doradas
1.30

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par
Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Águilas Doradas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw
72%
Internacional de Bogota or Águilas Doradas
71%
Draw or Águilas Doradas
56%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
20%
Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
72%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
36%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
13%
Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
61%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
24%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
61%
Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.90 · 169 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.22 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.26

Águilas Doradas attack 0.97 + Internacional de Bogota defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more
44%
level
29%
Águilas Doradas scores more
28%

Internacional de Bogota at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Internacional de Bogota vs Águilas Doradas

Internacional de Bogota and Águilas Doradas drew 2-2 in Primera A on October 27, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo in Bogotá, D.C..