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Instituto Cordoba vs Gimnasia L.P. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Instituto Cordoba
Instituto Cordoba
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gimnasia L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
J. Acevedo 90'
A. Luna 75'
F. Suarez 34' (pen)
1/25/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 1Estadio Presidente Peron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Instituto Cordoba44%
×Draw30%
Gimnasia L.P.26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Instituto Cordoba
1.19
Gimnasia L.P.
0.84

Instituto Cordoba creates 42% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 26 away

creates per match

Instituto Cordoba
1.15
Gimnasia L.P.
0.90

allows per match

Instituto Cordoba
0.79
Gimnasia L.P.
1.22

finishing

Instituto Cordoba-0.03on par
Gimnasia L.P.-0.09on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Instituto Cordoba ↓

Gimnasia L.P. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Instituto Cordoba or draw
74%
Instituto Cordoba or Gimnasia L.P.
70%
Draw or Gimnasia L.P.
56%

Winning margin

Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+
19%
Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals
70%
Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals
33%
Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals
12%
Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals
57%
Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals
21%
Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)
63%
Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Instituto Cordoba at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.79 · 17 matches

Gimnasia L.P. away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.22 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Instituto Cordoba attack 1.15 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Gimnasia L.P. attack 0.90 + Instituto Cordoba defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Instituto Cordoba scores more
44%
level
30%
Gimnasia L.P. scores more
26%

Instituto Cordoba at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Instituto Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
D. BatalliniInstituto CordobaInstituto Cordoba · M
7.9

Match Events

31'
Damián BatalliniPenalty confirmed
33'
Diego Mastrangelo
34'
F. SuarezPenalty
49'
Nicolás Garayalde
53'
Gastón Suso
59'
Lucas Castro
60'
Fernando Alarcón
62'
M. Melluso← D. Mastrangelo
62'
M. Fernandez← R. Giampaoli
62'
L. Mamut← N. Garayalde
67'
Manuel Roffo
69'
J. Acevedo← D. Batallini
69'
M. Godoy← D. Puebla
72'
Manuel Panaro
74'
P. De Blasis← M. Panaro
75'
A. Luna↳ M. Godoy
80'
I. Mammini← L. Castro
81'
Matías Melluso
83'
Matías Godoy
86'
F. Diaz← G. A. Lodico
86'
S. Romero← A. Luna
90'
J. Dellarossa← F. Suarez
90'
J. Acevedo↳ F. Diaz

Possession

47%Instituto

Shots

11Instituto

Pass accuracy

49%Instituto

Statistics

InstitutoGimnasia
Overview
47%Possession53%
11Total Shots7
6Corners1
12Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots7
5On Target2
3Off Target3
3Blocked2
9Inside Box4
2Outside Box3
Passing
47%Possession53%
244Total Passes289
164Accurate Passes204
67%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls14
3Yellow Cards6
3Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Instituto Cordoba 3–0 Gimnasia L.P.

Instituto Cordoba beat Gimnasia L.P. 3-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on January 25, 2025.

Goals: F. Suarez (34' pen), A. Luna (75'), J. Acevedo (90').

Gimnasia L.P. controlled possession (53%) and registered 7 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Presidente Peron in Cordoba.