Instituto Cordoba 2–1 Gimnasia L.P.: Result & Stats

Instituto Cordoba

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Gimnasia L.P.

G. Rodríguez 81'

S. Rodríguez 29'

M. Abaldo 5'

6/2/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 4Estadio Juan Domingo Perón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Instituto Cordoba44%

×Draw30%

Gimnasia L.P.26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Instituto CordobaExpected goals in this matchGimnasia L.P.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.84

Instituto Cordoba

1.19

Gimnasia L.P.

0.84

Instituto Cordoba creates 42% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 26 away

1.15

creates per match

0.90

0.79

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Instituto Cordoba

1.15

Gimnasia L.P.

0.90

allows per match

Instituto Cordoba

0.79

Gimnasia L.P.

1.22

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Instituto Cordoba-0.03on par

Gimnasia L.P.-0.09on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Instituto Cordoba ↓

Gimnasia L.P. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Instituto Cordoba or draw

74%

Instituto Cordoba or Gimnasia L.P.

70%

Draw or Gimnasia L.P.

56%

Winning margin

Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+

19%

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals

70%

Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals

33%

Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals

12%

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals

57%

Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals

21%

Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)

63%

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Instituto Cordoba at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.79 · 17 matches

Gimnasia L.P. away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.22 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Instituto Cordoba attack 1.15 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Gimnasia L.P. attack 0.90 + Instituto Cordoba defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Instituto Cordoba scores more

44%

level

30%

Gimnasia L.P. scores more

26%

Instituto Cordoba at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Instituto Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

S. Rodríguez

Instituto Cordoba · F

7.7

Match Events

5'

M. Abaldo↳ R. Castillo

29'

S. Rodríguez↳ D. Puebla

39'

Jonas Acevedo

62'

G. Rodríguez← F. Suárez

62'

R. Pérez Casada← J. Acevedo

71'

Rodrigo Perez

73'

Yonatan Cabral

74'

B. Cuello← S. Rodríguez

77'

Leonardo Morales

79'

D. Zalazar← P. De Blasis

79'

F. Sánchez← B. Domínguez

80'

81'

84'

85'

90+1'

90'

E. Ramírez← N. Colazo

90'

L. Chávez← M. Abaldo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InstitutoGimnasia

Overview

40%Possession60%

12Total Shots13

0.49Expected Goals (xG)0.50

4Corners3

10Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots13

2On Target4

5Off Target5

5Blocked4

6Inside Box7

6Outside Box6

Passing

40%Possession60%

304Total Passes471

191Accurate Passes353

63%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

-1.41Goals Prevented-1.41

Discipline

10Fouls11

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Instituto Cordoba 2–1 Gimnasia L.P.

Instituto Cordoba beat Gimnasia L.P. 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on June 2, 2024.

Goals: M. Abaldo (5'), S. Rodríguez (29'), G. Rodríguez (81').

Gimnasia L.P. controlled possession (60%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Domingo Perón in Ciudad de Córdoba, Provincia de Córdoba.

Instituto Cordoba vs Gimnasia L.P. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina: Instituto Cordoba 2–1 Gimnasia L.P.