Gimnasia L.P. 0–1 Instituto Cordoba: Result & Stats

Gimnasia L.P.

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Instituto Cordoba

A. Luna 44'

7/12/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 1Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Gimnasia L.P.36%

×Draw30%

Instituto Cordoba34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimnasia L.P.Expected goals in this matchInstituto Cordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.03

Gimnasia L.P.

1.06

Instituto Cordoba

1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 14 away

1.07

creates per match

0.95

1.11

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Gimnasia L.P.

1.07

Instituto Cordoba

0.95

allows per match

Gimnasia L.P.

1.11

Instituto Cordoba

1.05

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

Gimnasia L.P.-0.24scores less

Instituto Cordoba-0.31scores less

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia L.P. ↓

Instituto Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Gimnasia L.P. or draw

66%

Gimnasia L.P. or Instituto Cordoba

70%

Draw or Instituto Cordoba

64%

Winning margin

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+

14%

Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals

65%

Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals

29%

Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals

9%

Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals

64%

Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals

28%

Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)

51%

Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia L.P. at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.11 · 23 matches

Instituto Cordoba away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.05 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia L.P. attack 1.07 + Instituto Cordoba defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Instituto Cordoba attack 0.95 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Gimnasia L.P. scores more

36%

level

30%

Instituto Cordoba scores more

34%

Gimnasia L.P. at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Gimnasia L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

M. Roffo

Instituto Cordoba · G

9.2

Match Events

13'

Nicolás Garayalde

44'

A. Luna↳ F. Mac Allister

45+1'

Facundo Di Biasi

45'

Alex Luna

55'

M. Panaro← M. Zalazar

59'

Francis Mac Allister

60'

L. Castro← N. Garayalde

60'

L. Mamut← A. Sosa

61'

J. Acevedo← F. Mac Allister

61'

M. Fonseca← N. Cordero

62'

F. Diaz← D. Puebla

70'

Jonas Acevedo

74'

N. Briasco← J. Merlo

74'

M. Torres← I. Mammini

87'

L. Mosevich← G. A. Lodico

90+5'

Norberto Briasco

90+4'

Gonzalo Requena

90+1'

L. Klimowicz← A. Luna

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GimnasiaInstituto

Overview

52%Possession48%

15Total Shots17

0.62Expected Goals (xG)1.82

7Corners8

18Fouls6

Shots

15Total Shots17

6On Target5

5Off Target5

4Blocked7

7Inside Box12

8Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

359Total Passes334

267Accurate Passes243

74%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

0.62Goals Prevented0.62

Discipline

18Fouls6

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2