Gimnasia L.P. 1–3 Instituto Cordoba: Result & Stats

Gimnasia L.P.

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Instituto Cordoba

B. Domínguez 60'

J. Bay 84'

D. Puebla 67' (pen)

F. Suárez 27'

2/29/2024

League #1032 · 1st Phase - 8Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gimnasia L.P.32%

×Draw25%

Instituto Cordoba43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimnasia L.P.Expected goals in this matchInstituto Cordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.50

Gimnasia L.P.

1.25

Instituto Cordoba

1.50

Instituto Cordoba creates 20% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.75

creates per match

1.25

1.75

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Gimnasia L.P.

1.75

Instituto Cordoba

1.25

allows per match

Gimnasia L.P.

1.75

Instituto Cordoba

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimnasia L.P.+0.00on par

Instituto Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia L.P. ↓

Instituto Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Gimnasia L.P. or draw

57%

Gimnasia L.P. or Instituto Cordoba

75%

Draw or Instituto Cordoba

68%

Winning margin

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+

13%

Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals

71%

Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals

36%

Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals

13%

Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals

78%

Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals

44%

Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)

42%

Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia L.P. at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Instituto Cordoba away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia L.P. attack 1.75 + Instituto Cordoba defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.25

Instituto Cordoba attack 1.25 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gimnasia L.P. scores more

32%

level

25%

Instituto Cordoba scores more

43%

Instituto Cordoba at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Instituto Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

G. Lodico

Instituto Cordoba · M

8.6

Match Events

27'

F. Suárez↳ G. Lodico

30'

Jonas Acevedo

31'

Rodrigo Saravia

42'

Matias AbaldoCard upgrade

43'

Matias Abaldo

46'

E. Ramírez← R. Saravia

46'

F. Milo← G. Canto

60'

B. Domínguez↳ E. Ramírez

62'

F. Troyansky← I. Mammini

64'

Felipe Sánchez

67'

D. PueblaPenalty

68'

Guillermo Enrique

71'

G. Mainero← B. Cuello

78'

S. Rodríguez← D. Puebla

78'

I. Russo← F. Suárez

78'

R. Pérez Casada← R. Bochi

84'

L. Chávez← Y. Rodríguez

84'

J. Bay↳ G. Lodico

86'

Yonatan Cabral

90+6'

Guido Mainero

90+1'

G. Requena← J. Acevedo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GimnasiaInstituto

Overview

48%Possession52%

9Total Shots24

7Corners10

14Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots24

2On Target5

7Off Target11

0Blocked8

6Inside Box16

3Outside Box8

Passing

48%Possession52%

295Total Passes331

193Accurate Passes232

65%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

2Red Cards0