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Independiente vs Gimnasia L.P. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Independiente
Independiente
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gimnasia L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
A. Angulo 81'
G. Avalos 10' (pen)
2/3/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 3Estadio Libertadores de América

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Independiente44%
×Draw31%
Gimnasia L.P.26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente
1.13
Gimnasia L.P.
0.79

Independiente creates 43% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 26 away

creates per match

Independiente
1.03
Gimnasia L.P.
0.90

allows per match

Independiente
0.69
Gimnasia L.P.
1.22

finishing

Independiente+0.17scores more
Gimnasia L.P.-0.09on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

Gimnasia L.P. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Independiente or draw
74%
Independiente or Gimnasia L.P.
69%
Draw or Gimnasia L.P.
56%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+
18%
Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals
68%
Independiente 2+ goals
31%
Independiente 3+ goals
11%
Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals
55%
Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals
19%
Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)
63%
Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.69 · 15 matches

Gimnasia L.P. away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.22 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 1.03 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Gimnasia L.P. attack 0.90 + Independiente defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Independiente scores more
44%
level
31%
Gimnasia L.P. scores more
26%

Independiente at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77
A. AnguloIndependienteIndependiente · D
7.7

Match Events

10'
G. AvalosPenalty
17'
K. LomonacoGoal Disallowed - offside
55'
G. Avalos
60'
M. Gimenez← G. Avalos
70'
A. Angulo← D. Tarzia
70'
I. Maestro← L. Cabral
72'
F. Corbalan← M. Panaro
72'
S. Villarreal← A. Sosa
79'
I. Mammini← L. Castro
80'
P. Galdames← F. Vera
80'
F. Mancuello← L. Millan
81'
A. Angulo
86'
S. Villarreal
87'
P. Galdames
88'
J. Moreno← M. Fernandez
89'
M. Melluso← J. Pintado

Possession

57%Independiente

Shots

16Independiente

Pass accuracy

52%Independiente

Statistics

IndependienteGimnasia
Overview
57%Possession43%
16Total Shots10
8Corners3
9Fouls15
Shots
16Total Shots10
5On Target2
6Off Target5
5Blocked3
11Inside Box6
5Outside Box4
Passing
57%Possession43%
435Total Passes327
357Accurate Passes245
82%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls15
2Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Independiente vs Gimnasia L.P.

Independiente beat Gimnasia L.P. 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on February 3, 2025.

Goals: G. Avalos (10' pen), A. Angulo (81').

Independiente controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Libertadores de América in Avellaneda.