Independiente 1–0 Gimnasia L.P.: Result & Stats

Independiente

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gimnasia L.P.

J. Laso 42'

11/21/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 23Estadio Libertadores de América

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Independiente44%

×Draw31%

Gimnasia L.P.26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IndependienteExpected goals in this matchGimnasia L.P.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.79

Independiente

1.13

Gimnasia L.P.

0.79

Independiente creates 43% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 26 away

1.03

creates per match

0.90

0.69

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Independiente

1.03

Gimnasia L.P.

0.90

allows per match

Independiente

0.69

Gimnasia L.P.

1.22

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Independiente+0.17scores more

Gimnasia L.P.-0.09on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

Gimnasia L.P. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Independiente or draw

74%

Independiente or Gimnasia L.P.

69%

Draw or Gimnasia L.P.

56%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+

18%

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals

68%

Independiente 2+ goals

31%

Independiente 3+ goals

11%

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals

55%

Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals

19%

Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)

63%

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.69 · 15 matches

Gimnasia L.P. away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.22 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 1.03 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Gimnasia L.P. attack 0.90 + Independiente defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Independiente scores more

44%

level

31%

Gimnasia L.P. scores more

26%

Independiente at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

M. Ledesma

Gimnasia L.P. · G

8.3

Match Events

22'

24'

31'

41'

42'

45+4'

46'

D. Tarzia← S. Montiel

46'

S. Toloza← L. González

46'

F. Troyansky← L. Castro

46'

D. Zalazar← S. Primante

67'

M. Fernández← A. Max

68'

M. Panaro← P. De Blasis

71'

Franco Troyansky

75'

A. Luna← S. Hidalgo

80'

Manuel Panaro

81'

V. Rodríguez← N. Colazo

86'

Rodrigo Rey

88'

Yonatan Cabral

90+2'

J. Fedorco← F. Vera

90+4'

I. Maestro Puch← G. Ávalos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteGimnasia

Overview

47%Possession53%

23Total Shots4

1.29Expected Goals (xG)0.10

5Corners2

10Fouls24

Shots

23Total Shots4

6On Target2

13Off Target2

4Blocked0

14Inside Box1

9Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

277Total Passes321

202Accurate Passes236

73%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

0.22Goals Prevented0.22

Discipline

10Fouls24

5Yellow Cards4

3Offsides3