Gimnasia L.P. 1–1 Independiente: Result & Stats

Gimnasia L.P.

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente

B. Domínguez 90+5'

B. Martínez 54'

7/7/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 23Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Gimnasia L.P.36%

×Draw30%

Independiente33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimnasia L.P.Expected goals in this matchIndependiente

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.00

Gimnasia L.P.

1.06

Independiente

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 18 away

1.07

creates per match

0.89

1.11

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Gimnasia L.P.

1.07

Independiente

0.89

allows per match

Gimnasia L.P.

1.11

Independiente

1.06

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

Gimnasia L.P.-0.24scores less

Independiente-0.22scores less

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia L.P. ↓

Independiente →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Gimnasia L.P. or draw

67%

Gimnasia L.P. or Independiente

70%

Draw or Independiente

64%

Winning margin

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+

14%

Independiente wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals

65%

Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals

29%

Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals

9%

Independiente 1+ goals

63%

Independiente 2+ goals

26%

Independiente 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)

52%

Independiente (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia L.P. at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.11 · 23 matches

Independiente away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia L.P. attack 1.07 + Independiente defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Independiente attack 0.89 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Gimnasia L.P. scores more

36%

level

30%

Independiente scores more

33%

Gimnasia L.P. at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Gimnasia L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

S. Ortíz

Independiente · M

7.6

Match Events

16'

Sergio Ortiz

45'

Antonio Napolitano

47'

Leonardo Morales

54'

B. Martínez↳ A. Costa

58'

F. Torres← I. Mammini

59'

E. Ramírez← A. Lescano

59'

L. Mamut← A. Napolitano

66'

M. Bazzi← N. Colazo

71'

D. Martínez← K. López

76'

M. Giménez← M. Cauteruccio

76'

S. Salle← B. Barcia

81'

R. Castillo← G. Enrique

84'

N. Vallejo← B. Martínez

85'

Edgar Elizalde

89'

Matías Bazzi

90+4'

Franco Torres

90+3'

Franco TorresCard upgrade

90+5'

B. Domínguez↳ E. Ramírez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GimnasiaIndependiente

Overview

56%Possession44%

10Total Shots7

2Corners6

16Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots7

6On Target1

1Off Target5

3Blocked1

7Inside Box4

3Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

415Total Passes320

299Accurate Passes190

72%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls17

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1