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Gimnasia L.P. vs Independiente — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Gimnasia L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Independiente
Independiente
L. Contín 56'
L. Morales 51'
B. Domínguez 33'
L. Fernández 12'
9/3/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 17Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Gimnasia L.P.36%
×Draw30%
Independiente33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnasia L.P.
1.06
Independiente
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 18 away

creates per match

Gimnasia L.P.
1.07
Independiente
0.89

allows per match

Gimnasia L.P.
1.11
Independiente
1.06

finishing

Gimnasia L.P.-0.24scores less
Independiente-0.22scores less

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia L.P. ↓

Independiente →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Gimnasia L.P. or draw
67%
Gimnasia L.P. or Independiente
70%
Draw or Independiente
64%

Winning margin

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+
14%
Independiente wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals
65%
Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals
29%
Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals
9%
Independiente 1+ goals
63%
Independiente 2+ goals
26%
Independiente 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)
52%
Independiente (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia L.P. at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.11 · 23 matches

Independiente away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia L.P. attack 1.07 + Independiente defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Independiente attack 0.89 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Gimnasia L.P. scores more
36%
level
30%
Independiente scores more
33%

Gimnasia L.P. at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Gimnasia L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
B. AlemánGimnasia L.P.Gimnasia L.P. · M
7.6

Match Events

12'
L. Fernández↳ F. Ferreyra
20'
Brahian Alemán
33'
B. Domínguez
44'
Oscar Piris
50'
Edgar Elizalde
51'
L. Morales↳ B. Alemán
56'
Nicolás Contín
56'
L. Contín↳ G. Enrique
59'
L. Benegas← A. Soñora
63'
T. Pozzo← D. Batallini
64'
R. Sosa← L. Contín
64'
G. Hachen← L. González
71'
Leandro Fernández
81'
T. Muro← B. Domínguez
81'
J. Cazares← L. Romero
81'
J. Vallejo← F. Ferreyra
86'
R. Cecchini← B. Alemán
87'
N. Colazo← A. Steimbach
90+4'
Sergio Barreto

Possession

40%Gimnasia

Shots

18Gimnasia

Pass accuracy

47%Gimnasia

Statistics

GimnasiaIndependiente
Overview
40%Possession60%
18Total Shots9
5Corners7
14Fouls11
Shots
18Total Shots9
6On Target3
8Off Target3
4Blocked3
9Inside Box4
9Outside Box5
Passing
40%Possession60%
279Total Passes439
180Accurate Passes327
65%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls11
3Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Gimnasia L.P. 3–1 Independiente

Gimnasia L.P. beat Independiente 3-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on September 3, 2022.

Goals: L. Fernández (12'), B. Domínguez (33'), L. Morales (51'), L. Contín (56').

Independiente controlled possession (60%) and registered 9 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo in La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.