Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar

Independiente Medellin

Preview

23:15

Alianza Valledupar

10/30/2026

Primera A · Clausura - 17Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Big match

55%

Independiente Medellin

model favours

55%26%19%

Independiente Medellin score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

59%

under 2.5 goals

43%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 167+ matches

Independiente Medellin55%

×Draw26%

Alianza Valledupar19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchAlianza Valledupar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.78

Independiente Medellin

1.54

Alianza Valledupar

0.78

Independiente Medellin creates 97% more chances

Season form · 183 home / 167 away

1.57

creates per match

0.75

0.82

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.57

Alianza Valledupar

0.75

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.82

Alianza Valledupar

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Alianza Valledupar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

81%

Independiente Medellin or Alianza Valledupar

74%

Draw or Alianza Valledupar

45%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

29%

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

79%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

45%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

20%

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

54%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

18%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

74%

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.82 · 183 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 167 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.57 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.75 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

55%

level

26%

Alianza Valledupar scores more

19%

Independiente Medellin at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

67% of Independiente Medellin’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Independiente Medellin sit 2, Alianza Valledupar 17 in the table
Independiente Medellin outscore their xG (1.2 vs 0.8 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Independiente Medellin

Defensively solid

Alianza Valledupar

Balanced

55%Possession49%

80%Pass accuracy79%

15.1ShotsBiggest gap12.1

0.85xG0.98

Independiente MedellinAlianza Valledupar

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5

Independiente Medellin

3

Draws

2

Alianza Valledupar

Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 50%

1–01–11–12–00–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Medellin

WDLWD

Valledupar

WLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff