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Alianza Valledupar vs Independiente Medellin — Primera A 2025

Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
F. Fydriszewski 42'
4/19/2026Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 17Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Alianza Valledupar40%
×Draw28%
Independiente Medellin31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Valledupar
1.23
Independiente Medellin
1.05

Alianza Valledupar creates 17% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 39 away

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar
1.28
Independiente Medellin
1.26

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar
0.85
Independiente Medellin
1.18

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par
Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw
69%
Alianza Valledupar or Independiente Medellin
72%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
60%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
18%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
71%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
35%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
13%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
65%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
28%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
56%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.85 · 46 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.28 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Independiente Medellin attack 1.26 + Alianza Valledupar defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more
40%
level
28%
Independiente Medellin scores more
31%

Alianza Valledupar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
F. FabraIndependiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin · D
7.6

Match Events

20'
Alexis Serna
26'
Misael Martínez
36'
Jesús Muñoz
36'
Léyser Chaverra
37'
José Ortiz
42'
F. Fydriszewski↳ J. Montano
45+3'
Wiston Fernández
46'
Carlos Esparragoza
46'
F. Cantillo← W. Fernandez
46'
L. Valencia← K. Moreno
46'
B. Perlaza← L. Chaverra
46'
L. Escorcia← A. Serna
58'
H. Palacios← D. Catano
66'
F. Pardo← M. Martinez
66'
C. Lucumi← J. Munoz
74'
J. E. Perez Balcazar← C. Villegas
76'
F. Chaverra← J. Montano
83'
Francisco Chaverra
89'
Eder Chaux
90'
D. Moreno← H. Loboa

Possession

59%Alianza

Shots

18Alianza

Pass accuracy

52%Alianza

Statistics

AlianzaIndependiente
Overview
59%Possession41%
18Total Shots9
1.23Expected Goals (xG)0.50
6Corners4
13Fouls11
Shots
18Total Shots9
1On Target3
12Off Target3
5Blocked3
9Inside Box2
9Outside Box7
Passing
59%Possession41%
402Total Passes298
344Accurate Passes237
86%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
0.27Goals Prevented0.27
Discipline
13Fouls11
4Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Alianza Valledupar vs Independiente Medellin

Independiente Medellin beat Alianza Valledupar 1-0 in Primera A on April 19, 2026.

Goals: F. Fydriszewski (42').

Alianza Valledupar controlled possession (59%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar.