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Alianza Valledupar vs Independiente Medellin — Primera A 2024

Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
E. Torres 64'
L. Sandoval 55'
1/27/2025Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 1Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Alianza Valledupar41%
×Draw28%
Independiente Medellin32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Valledupar
1.29
Independiente Medellin
1.11

Alianza Valledupar creates 16% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 55 away

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar
1.24
Independiente Medellin
1.24

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar
0.98
Independiente Medellin
1.33

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par
Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw
68%
Alianza Valledupar or Independiente Medellin
72%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
59%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
18%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
72%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
37%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
14%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
67%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
30%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
56%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.24 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Independiente Medellin attack 1.24 + Alianza Valledupar defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more
41%
level
28%
Independiente Medellin scores more
32%

Alianza Valledupar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
L. PerezAlianza ValleduparAlianza Valledupar · M
7.5

Match Events

18'
H. E. Martinez Yepez
55'
L. Sandoval
57'
D. A. Mendoza Benitez
64'
E. Torres
68'
J. Alvarado← H. E. Martinez Yepez
68'
B. Leon← F. Fydriszewski
71'
A. Renteria← W. Fernandez
71'
R. R. Colpa Bolano← D. A. Mendoza Benitez
73'
M. Martinez
77'
D. Moreno← L. Berrio
79'
G. Jimenez← M. Martinez
86'
M. Garcia← L. Sandoval
87'
J. Munoz← J. Munoz
88'
A. Renteria

Possession

51%Alianza

Shots

5Alianza

Pass accuracy

52%Alianza

Statistics

AlianzaIndependiente
Overview
51%Possession49%
5Total Shots12
2Corners6
16Fouls13
Shots
5Total Shots12
1On Target4
3Off Target4
1Blocked4
3Inside Box3
2Outside Box9
Passing
51%Possession49%
268Total Passes256
182Accurate Passes158
68%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
16Fouls13
3Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Primera A: Alianza Valledupar 1–1 Independiente Medellin

Alianza Valledupar and Independiente Medellin drew 1-1 in Primera A on January 27, 2025.

Goals: L. Sandoval (55'), E. Torres (64').

Alianza Valledupar controlled possession (51%) and registered 5 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar.