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Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar — Primera A 2024

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
L. Chaverra 90+4' (pen)
D. Moreno 2'
10/10/2024Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 8Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Independiente Medellin54%
×Draw26%
Alianza Valledupar20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
1.48
Alianza Valledupar
0.79

Independiente Medellin creates 87% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 53 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
1.48
Alianza Valledupar
0.70

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
0.88
Alianza Valledupar
1.49

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par
Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Alianza Valledupar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
80%
Independiente Medellin or Alianza Valledupar
74%
Draw or Alianza Valledupar
46%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
27%
Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
77%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
43%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
19%
Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
55%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
19%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
73%
Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.88 · 56 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.49 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.48 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.48

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.70 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
54%
level
26%
Alianza Valledupar scores more
20%

Independiente Medellin at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
L. ChaverraIndependiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin · D
8.2

Match Events

2'
D. Moreno↳ J. González
32'
José Aja
46'
D. Mendoza← S. Orozco
58'
Luis Sandoval
65'
M. García← J. González
68'
S. Aponzá← E. Torres
68'
E. Batalla← M. Gil
73'
I. Camargo← M. Martínez
74'
Sergio Aponzá
79'
M. Torres← J. Muñoz
80'
B. Perlaza← D. Moreno
81'
Diego Mendoza
87'
J. Mosquera← B. León
90+1'
Jímer ForyPenalty confirmed
90+1'
Carlos Mosquera
90+4'
L. ChaverraPenalty

Possession

55%Independiente

Shots

21Independiente

Pass accuracy

53%Independiente

Statistics

IndependienteAlianza
Overview
55%Possession45%
21Total Shots13
8Corners7
10Fouls10
Shots
21Total Shots13
8On Target4
8Off Target6
5Blocked3
13Inside Box5
8Outside Box8
Passing
55%Possession45%
383Total Passes320
318Accurate Passes240
83%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls10
2Yellow Cards3
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar

Independiente Medellin beat Alianza Valledupar 2-0 in Primera A on October 10, 2024.

Goals: D. Moreno (2'), L. Chaverra (90+4' pen).

Independiente Medellin controlled possession (55%) and registered 21 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.