Independiente Medellin 1–1 Alianza Valledupar

Independiente Medellin

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Alianza Valledupar

B. Perlaza 69'

A. Del Valle 4'

7/13/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 1Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Independiente Medellin54%

×Draw26%

Alianza Valledupar20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchAlianza Valledupar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.79

Independiente Medellin

1.48

Alianza Valledupar

0.79

Independiente Medellin creates 87% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 53 away

1.48

creates per match

0.70

0.88

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.48

Alianza Valledupar

0.70

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.88

Alianza Valledupar

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Alianza Valledupar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

80%

Independiente Medellin or Alianza Valledupar

74%

Draw or Alianza Valledupar

46%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

27%

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

77%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

43%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

19%

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

55%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

19%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

73%

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.88 · 56 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.49 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.48 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.48

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.70 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

54%

level

26%

Alianza Valledupar scores more

20%

Independiente Medellin at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

H. E. Martinez Yepez

Independiente Medellin · M

8.0

Match Events

4'

A. Del Valle↳ R. Manjarres

46'

L. Chaverra← J. Palacios

46'

B. Perlaza← L. Berrio

57'

J. Munoz← R. Manjarres

57'

E. Torres← A. Del Valle

61'

Y. Rodallega← D. Moreno

61'

G. Mancilla← F. Chaverra

61'

J. Munoz← M. Gil

69'

B. Perlaza↳ H. E. Martinez Yepez

78'

C. Lucumi← F. Pardo

79'

F. Mosquera← J. Castillo

80'

F. Torijano← J. Arizala

83'

84'

87'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteAlianza

Overview

67%Possession33%

21Total Shots9

0.98Expected Goals (xG)1.03

15Corners3

7Fouls8

Shots

21Total Shots9

4On Target6

6Off Target2

11Blocked1

7Inside Box5

14Outside Box4

Passing

67%Possession33%

534Total Passes267

462Accurate Passes194

87%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls8

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3