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Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar — Primera A 2018

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
10/1/2022Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 15Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 167+ matches

Independiente Medellin55%
×Draw26%
Alianza Valledupar19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
1.54
Alianza Valledupar
0.78

Independiente Medellin creates 97% more chances

Season form · 183 home / 167 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
1.57
Alianza Valledupar
0.75

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
0.82
Alianza Valledupar
1.50

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par
Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Alianza Valledupar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
81%
Independiente Medellin or Alianza Valledupar
74%
Draw or Alianza Valledupar
45%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
29%
Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
79%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
45%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
20%
Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
54%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
18%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
74%
Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.82 · 183 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 167 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.57 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.75 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
55%
level
26%
Alianza Valledupar scores more
19%

Independiente Medellin at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar

Independiente Medellin beat Alianza Valledupar 3-1 in Primera A on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.