Independiente Medellin 2–2 Alianza Valledupar

Independiente Medellin

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Alianza Valledupar

M. Mier 43'

J. Reina 9'

S. Acosta 88'

E. Torres 14'

4/10/2021

Primera A · Apertura - 18Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 167+ matches

Independiente Medellin55%

×Draw26%

Alianza Valledupar19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchAlianza Valledupar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.78

Independiente Medellin

1.54

Alianza Valledupar

0.78

Independiente Medellin creates 97% more chances

Season form · 183 home / 167 away

1.57

creates per match

0.75

0.82

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.57

Alianza Valledupar

0.75

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.82

Alianza Valledupar

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Alianza Valledupar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

81%

Independiente Medellin or Alianza Valledupar

74%

Draw or Alianza Valledupar

45%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

29%

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

79%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

45%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

20%

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

54%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

18%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

74%

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.82 · 183 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 167 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.57 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.75 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

55%

level

26%

Alianza Valledupar scores more

19%

Independiente Medellin at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Mier

Independiente Medellin · M

7.9

Match Events

9'

J. Reina↳ J. Sánchez

14'

E. Torres↳ L. Saldaña

43'

44'

56'

56'

68'

S. Acosta← L. Saldaña

74'

Y. Díaz← K. Londoño

84'

J. Estupiñan← J. Sánchez

84'

M. Monsalve← L. Castro

84'

B. Gil← E. Torres

88'

S. Acosta↳ C. Alzáte

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteAlianza

Overview

60%Possession40%

10Total Shots12

6Corners7

9Fouls18

Shots

10Total Shots12

6On Target5

3Off Target3

1Blocked4

4Inside Box3

6Outside Box9

Passing

60%Possession40%

445Total Passes285

368Accurate Passes214

83%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls18

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0