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Independ. Rivadavia vs Central Cordoba de Santiago — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Independ. Rivadavia
Independ. Rivadavia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Central Cordoba de Santiago
11/11/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 15Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Independ. Rivadavia44%
×Draw29%
Central Cordoba de Santiago27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independ. Rivadavia
1.21
Central Cordoba de Santiago
0.88

Independ. Rivadavia creates 38% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 19 away

creates per match

Independ. Rivadavia
1.05
Central Cordoba de Santiago
0.74

allows per match

Independ. Rivadavia
1.01
Central Cordoba de Santiago
1.38

finishing

Independ. Rivadavia-0.32scores less
Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.10scores more

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independ. Rivadavia ↓

Central Cordoba de Santiago →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Independ. Rivadavia or draw
73%
Independ. Rivadavia or Central Cordoba de Santiago
71%
Draw or Central Cordoba de Santiago
56%

Winning margin

Independ. Rivadavia wins by 2+
19%
Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Independ. Rivadavia 1+ goals
70%
Independ. Rivadavia 2+ goals
34%
Independ. Rivadavia 3+ goals
12%
Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals
59%
Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals
22%
Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Independ. Rivadavia (draw refunded)
62%
Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independ. Rivadavia at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.01 · 22 matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.38 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independ. Rivadavia attack 1.05 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 0.74 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Independ. Rivadavia scores more
44%
level
29%
Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more
27%

Independ. Rivadavia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Independ. Rivadavia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
A. AguerreCentral Cordoba de SantiagoCentral Cordoba de Santiago · G
8.2

Match Events

45+1'
Matías Vera
46'
L. Besozzi← L. Varaldo
58'
S. Moyano← F. Martinez
58'
M. Perello← D. Zalazar
69'
Sheyko Studer
76'
Y. Casermeiro← J. Pignani
81'
J. Barbieri← F. Sartori
81'
S. Cristoforo← M. Vera
82'
K. Retamar← M. Fernandez
86'
Sebastián Villa
87'
E. Bonifacio← L. Gomez
87'
L. Abecasis← A. Osella
90'
D. Tonetto← M. Cardillo

Possession

49%Independ.

Shots

16Independ.

Pass accuracy

50%Independ.

Statistics

Independ.Central
Overview
49%Possession51%
16Total Shots14
1.80Expected Goals (xG)1.00
7Corners6
6Fouls7
Shots
16Total Shots14
5On Target1
7Off Target7
4Blocked6
12Inside Box6
4Outside Box8
Passing
49%Possession51%
395Total Passes409
315Accurate Passes330
80%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
0.96Goals Prevented0.96
Discipline
6Fouls7
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Independ. Rivadavia 0–0 Central Cordoba de Santiago

Independ. Rivadavia and Central Cordoba de Santiago drew 0-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on November 11, 2025.

Central Cordoba de Santiago controlled possession (51%) and registered 14 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini in Mendoza.