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Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Independ. Rivadavia — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Central Cordoba de Santiago
Central Cordoba de Santiago
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Independ. Rivadavia
Independ. Rivadavia
G. Veron 72' (pen)
M. Cardillo 81'
F. Sartori 76'
4/29/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 15Estadio Unico Madre de Ciudades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago43%
×Draw30%
Independ. Rivadavia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Cordoba de Santiago
1.17
Independ. Rivadavia
0.85

Central Cordoba de Santiago creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 20 away

creates per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago
1.27
Independ. Rivadavia
0.80

allows per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago
0.91
Independ. Rivadavia
1.07

finishing

Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.08on par
Independ. Rivadavia+0.15scores more

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Cordoba de Santiago ↓

Independ. Rivadavia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Central Cordoba de Santiago or draw
73%
Central Cordoba de Santiago or Independ. Rivadavia
70%
Draw or Independ. Rivadavia
57%

Winning margin

Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+
19%
Independ. Rivadavia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals
69%
Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals
33%
Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals
11%
Independ. Rivadavia 1+ goals
57%
Independ. Rivadavia 2+ goals
21%
Independ. Rivadavia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)
62%
Independ. Rivadavia (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Cordoba de Santiago at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.91 · 17 matches

Independ. Rivadavia away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.07 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 1.27 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.17

Independ. Rivadavia attack 0.80 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more
43%
level
30%
Independ. Rivadavia scores more
27%

Central Cordoba de Santiago at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Central Cordoba de Santiago will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
N. QuagliataCentral Cordoba de SantiagoCentral Cordoba de Santiago · M
8.2

Match Events

33'
M. Amarfil
54'
G. Veron← L. Heredia
67'
D. Zalazar← N. Quagliata
67'
N. Funez← M. Perello
68'
D. Glaby← J. I. Florentin Bobadilla
69'
L. Costa← M. Fernandez
69'
F. Sartori← K. Retamar
70'
S. Studer
72'
G. VeronPenalty
74'
M. Cardillo← A. Osella
74'
L. Sequeira← M. Valenti
76'
F. Sartori↳ S. Villa
81'
M. Cardillo↳ I. Villalba
83'
F. Cabral← J. Galvan
89'
L. Abascia
90'
I. Villalba
90+5'
L. Gomez
90+5'
L. Angulo
90+5'
P. Souto← L. Gomez

Possession

65%Central

Shots

14Central

Pass accuracy

54%Central

Statistics

CentralIndepend.
Overview
65%Possession35%
14Total Shots7
3Corners2
7Fouls11
Shots
14Total Shots7
4On Target4
10Off Target2
0Blocked1
11Inside Box4
3Outside Box3
Passing
65%Possession35%
478Total Passes265
405Accurate Passes189
85%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls11
2Yellow Cards3
0Offsides5

Liga Profesional Argentina: Central Cordoba de Santiago 1–2 Independ. Rivadavia

Independ. Rivadavia beat Central Cordoba de Santiago 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on April 29, 2025.

Goals: G. Veron (72' pen), F. Sartori (76'), M. Cardillo (81').

Central Cordoba de Santiago controlled possession (65%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Unico Madre de Ciudades in Santiago del Estero.