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Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Independ. Rivadavia — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Central Cordoba de Santiago
Central Cordoba de Santiago
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Independ. Rivadavia
Independ. Rivadavia
J. Florentín 40'
M. Benítez 22'
10/18/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 18Estadio Único Madre de Ciudades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago43%
×Draw30%
Independ. Rivadavia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Cordoba de Santiago
1.17
Independ. Rivadavia
0.85

Central Cordoba de Santiago creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 20 away

creates per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago
1.27
Independ. Rivadavia
0.80

allows per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago
0.91
Independ. Rivadavia
1.07

finishing

Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.08on par
Independ. Rivadavia+0.15scores more

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Cordoba de Santiago ↓

Independ. Rivadavia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Central Cordoba de Santiago or draw
73%
Central Cordoba de Santiago or Independ. Rivadavia
70%
Draw or Independ. Rivadavia
57%

Winning margin

Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+
19%
Independ. Rivadavia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals
69%
Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals
33%
Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals
11%
Independ. Rivadavia 1+ goals
57%
Independ. Rivadavia 2+ goals
21%
Independ. Rivadavia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)
62%
Independ. Rivadavia (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Cordoba de Santiago at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.91 · 17 matches

Independ. Rivadavia away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.07 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 1.27 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.17

Independ. Rivadavia attack 0.80 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more
43%
level
30%
Independ. Rivadavia scores more
27%

Central Cordoba de Santiago at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Central Cordoba de Santiago will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
M. BenítezCentral Cordoba de SantiagoCentral Cordoba de Santiago · M
7.9

Match Events

22'
M. Benítez↳ L. Varaldo
28'
Franco Romero
30'
T. Ostchega← F. Milo
40'
J. Florentín↳ M. Benítez
44'
Sebastián Villa
46'
B. Bianchi← L. Ríos
46'
Ezequiel Ham← G. Ríos
46'
J. Sanguina← J. Cavallaro
50'
Y. Rak← A. Segovia
52'
Iván Villalba
60'
F. Cabral← M. Benítez
64'
Luis Sequeira
71'
G. Álvez← L. Sequeira
76'
E. Cabrera← R. Atencio
76'
A. Morales← L. Varaldo
84'
Rafael Barrios
85'
Sheyko Studer

Possession

47%Central

Shots

15Central

Pass accuracy

49%Central

Statistics

CentralIndepend.
Overview
47%Possession53%
15Total Shots5
0.99Expected Goals (xG)0.26
3Corners3
12Fouls13
Shots
15Total Shots5
6On Target2
6Off Target3
3Blocked0
7Inside Box2
8Outside Box3
Passing
47%Possession53%
389Total Passes452
302Accurate Passes370
78%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
-0.42Goals Prevented-0.42
Discipline
12Fouls13
1Yellow Cards5
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Independ. Rivadavia

Central Cordoba de Santiago beat Independ. Rivadavia 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 18, 2024.

Goals: M. Benítez (22'), J. Florentín (40').

Independ. Rivadavia controlled possession (53%) and registered 5 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Único Madre de Ciudades in Santiago del Estero, Prov. de Santiago del Estero.