Independ. Rivadavia 2–0 Central Cordoba de Santiago

Independ. Rivadavia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Central Cordoba de Santiago

F. Negri 90+4'

J. Rossi 7' (OG)

9/2/2018

Primera Nacional · Round 2Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini (Mendoza, Provincia de Mendoza)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Independ. Rivadavia42%

×Draw27%

Central Cordoba de Santiago31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independ. RivadaviaExpected goals in this matchCentral Cordoba de Santiago

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.10

Independ. Rivadavia

1.33

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.10

Independ. Rivadavia creates 21% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 11 away

1.48

creates per match

1.27

0.93

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Independ. Rivadavia

1.48

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.27

allows per match

Independ. Rivadavia

0.93

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independ. Rivadavia+0.00on par

Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independ. Rivadavia ↓

Central Cordoba de Santiago →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Independ. Rivadavia or draw

69%

Independ. Rivadavia or Central Cordoba de Santiago

73%

Draw or Central Cordoba de Santiago

58%

Winning margin

Independ. Rivadavia wins by 2+

19%

Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Independ. Rivadavia 1+ goals

74%

Independ. Rivadavia 2+ goals

38%

Independ. Rivadavia 3+ goals

15%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals

67%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals

30%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Independ. Rivadavia (draw refunded)

58%

Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independ. Rivadavia at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.93 · 96 matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independ. Rivadavia attack 1.48 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.33

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 1.27 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Independ. Rivadavia scores more

42%

level

27%

Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more

31%

Independ. Rivadavia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Independ. Rivadavia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

J. RossiOwn goal

58'

M. Asenjo← C. Lucero

58'

L. Disanto← N. Quiroga

60'

L. Robles← F. Melivillo

60'

62'

76'

90+4'

Independ.

Central

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: G. Gómez

58'▲M. Asenjo←▼C. Lucero

58'▲L. Disanto←▼N. Quiroga

62'▲N. Dematei←▼J. Zules

Independ. Rivadavia substitutes

AsenjoDisantoDemateiFernándezMattaliaSánchezGuerra

Manager: G. Coleoni

60'▲L. Robles←▼F. Melivillo

60'▲D. Jara←▼R. Pérez

76'▲M. Barraza←▼C. Vega

Central Cordoba de Santiago substitutes

RoblesJaraBarrazaCavallottiPiñeroBarrionuevoRomero

Primera Nacional: Independ. Rivadavia 2–0 Central Cordoba de Santiago

Independ. Rivadavia beat Central Cordoba de Santiago 2-0 in Primera Nacional on September 2, 2018.

Goals: J. Rossi (7' o.g.), F. Negri (90+4').

The match was played at Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini (Mendoza, Provincia de Mendoza).

Independ. Rivadavia vs Central Cordoba de Santiago — Primera Nacional 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera Nacional: Independ. Rivadavia 2–0 Central Cordoba de Santiago