IFK Varnamo 1–0 Djurgardens IF: Result & Stats

IFK Varnamo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Djurgardens IF

M. Alsalkhadi 90'

7/13/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 15Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

IFK Varnamo33%

×Draw27%

Djurgardens IF40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK VarnamoExpected goals in this matchDjurgardens IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.35

IFK Varnamo

1.20

Djurgardens IF

1.35

Djurgardens IF creates 13% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

1.09

creates per match

1.26

1.45

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

IFK Varnamo

1.09

Djurgardens IF

1.26

allows per match

IFK Varnamo

1.45

Djurgardens IF

1.30

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

IFK Varnamo-0.09on par

Djurgardens IF+0.07on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

Djurgardens IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw

60%

IFK Varnamo or Djurgardens IF

73%

Draw or Djurgardens IF

67%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

14%

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

70%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

34%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

12%

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals

74%

Djurgardens IF 2+ goals

39%

Djurgardens IF 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

45%

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.45 · 18 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.30 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.09 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Djurgardens IF attack 1.26 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more

33%

level

27%

Djurgardens IF scores more

40%

Djurgardens IF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

H. Keto

IFK Varnamo · G

8.2

Match Events

46'

M. Anderson← R. Schuller

60'

61'

61'

68'

70'

O. Fallenius← P. Aslund

70'

A. Stahl← V. Bergh

74'

Frank Junior Adjei

77'

N. Shamoun← S. Thern

78'

I. Abdulrazak← A. Zeljkovic

78'

Z. Sawo← A. Priske

82'

Carl Johansson

85'

J. Kalu← F. Junior Adjei

85'

M. Alsalkhadi← K. Bilalovic

90+6'

Johnbosco Samuel Kalu

90+2'

Wenderson← C. Johansson

90'

M. Alsalkhadi↳ M. Antonsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IFKDjurgardens

Overview

40%Possession60%

10Total Shots21

0.47Expected Goals (xG)1.60

8Corners8

17Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots21

4On Target5

3Off Target9

3Blocked7

6Inside Box9

4Outside Box12

Passing

40%Possession60%

284Total Passes467

205Accurate Passes372

72%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls14

4Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1