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IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF — Allsvenskan 2026

IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
S. Thern 90+4'
D. Hümmet 81'
9/29/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 25Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

IFK Varnamo33%
×Draw27%
Djurgardens IF40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Varnamo
1.20
Djurgardens IF
1.35

Djurgardens IF creates 13% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

IFK Varnamo
1.09
Djurgardens IF
1.26

allows per match

IFK Varnamo
1.45
Djurgardens IF
1.30

finishing

IFK Varnamo-0.09on par
Djurgardens IF+0.07on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

Djurgardens IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw
60%
IFK Varnamo or Djurgardens IF
73%
Draw or Djurgardens IF
67%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
14%
Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
70%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
34%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
12%
Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
74%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
39%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
45%
Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.45 · 18 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.30 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.09 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Djurgardens IF attack 1.26 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more
33%
level
27%
Djurgardens IF scores more
40%

Djurgardens IF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
S. ThernIFK VarnamoIFK Varnamo · F
7.9

Match Events

13'
J. Une Larsson← M. Danielson
44'
August Priske
46'
Wenderson
46'
O. Jansson← J. Rinne
61'
M. Eriksson← R. Schüller
61'
G. Wikheim← T. Gulliksen
67'
Carl Johansson← G. Engvall
67'
J. Kalu← A. Zeljkovic
74'
F. Winsth← A. Lohikangas
81'
D. Hümmet↳ G. Wikheim
83'
H. Radetinac← D. Hümmet
85'
J. Voelkerling Persson← S. Kotto
85'
M. Bustos← V. Larsson
90'
Michael Steinwender
90+4'
S. Thern↳ J. Voelkerling Persson

Possession

49%IFK

Shots

10IFK

Pass accuracy

50%IFK

Statistics

IFKDjurgardens
Overview
49%Possession51%
10Total Shots9
0.88Expected Goals (xG)0.57
4Corners4
15Fouls13
Shots
10Total Shots9
2On Target3
5Off Target5
3Blocked1
9Inside Box7
1Outside Box2
Passing
49%Possession51%
451Total Passes467
335Accurate Passes347
74%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls13
2Yellow Cards1
3Offsides0

Allsvenskan: IFK Varnamo 1–1 Djurgardens IF

IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF drew 1-1 in Allsvenskan on September 29, 2024.

Goals: D. Hümmet (81'), S. Thern (90+4').

Djurgardens IF controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Finnvedsvallen in Värnamo.