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Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo — Allsvenskan 2026

Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
FT
6 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
P. Aslund 88'
J. Okkels 84'
A. Priske 51', 50'
T. Nguen 38'
M. Anderson 16'
M. Siltanen 81' (OG)
A. Zeljkovic 66'
10/25/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 283Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Djurgardens IF56%
×Draw23%
IFK Varnamo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djurgardens IF
1.86
IFK Varnamo
1.07

Djurgardens IF creates 74% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

creates per match

Djurgardens IF
1.88
IFK Varnamo
1.19

allows per match

Djurgardens IF
0.96
IFK Varnamo
1.84

finishing

Djurgardens IF+0.26scores more
IFK Varnamo+0.06on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

IFK Varnamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw
78%
Djurgardens IF or IFK Varnamo
77%
Draw or IFK Varnamo
44%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
32%
IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
84%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
55%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
28%
IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
66%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
29%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
72%
IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.96 · 21 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.84 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 1.88 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.86

IFK Varnamo attack 1.19 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more
56%
level
23%
IFK Varnamo scores more
22%

Djurgardens IF at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
T. NguenDjurgardens IFDjurgardens IF · M
8.5

Match Events

16'
M. Anderson
38'
T. Nguen↳ O. Fallenius
46'
T. Bergvall← K. Kosugi
46'
O. Liimatta← N. Shamoun
50'
A. Priske↳ T. Nguen
51'
A. Priske↳ O. Fallenius
66'
A. Zeljkovic↳ K. Meriluoto
67'
D. Stensson← R. Schuller
67'
P. Aslund← M. Anderson
67'
A. Saeed← O. Fallenius
67'
A. Kujundzic← A. Zeljkovic
67'
M. Alsalkhadi← S. Thern
76'
J. Okkels← T. Nguen
76'
M. C. Diallo← M. Antonsson
81'
M. SiltanenOwn goal
83'
E. Freij← J. Rapp
84'
J. Okkels
87'
Mohammad Alsalkhadi
88'
P. Aslund↳ T. Bergvall

Possession

64%Djurgardens

Shots

21Djurgardens

Pass accuracy

51%Djurgardens

Statistics

DjurgardensIFK
Overview
64%Possession36%
21Total Shots11
3.85Expected Goals (xG)0.79
7Corners2
11Fouls10
Shots
21Total Shots11
13On Target3
5Off Target4
3Blocked4
15Inside Box6
6Outside Box5
Passing
64%Possession36%
629Total Passes365
561Accurate Passes310
89%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
Discipline
11Fouls10
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Allsvenskan: Djurgardens IF 6–2 IFK Varnamo

Djurgardens IF beat IFK Varnamo 6-2 in Allsvenskan on October 25, 2025.

Goals: M. Anderson (16'), T. Nguen (38'), A. Priske (50', 51'), A. Zeljkovic (66'), M. Siltanen (81' o.g.), J. Okkels (84'), P. Aslund (88').

Djurgardens IF controlled possession (64%) and registered 21 shots to 11.

The match was played at 3Arena in Stockholm.