Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo — Allsvenskan 2026

Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
D. Hümmet 17'
7/14/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 14Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Djurgardens IF56%
×Draw23%
IFK Varnamo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djurgardens IF
1.86
IFK Varnamo
1.07

Djurgardens IF creates 74% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

creates per match

Djurgardens IF
1.88
IFK Varnamo
1.19

allows per match

Djurgardens IF
0.96
IFK Varnamo
1.84

finishing

Djurgardens IF+0.26scores more
IFK Varnamo+0.06on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

IFK Varnamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw
78%
Djurgardens IF or IFK Varnamo
77%
Draw or IFK Varnamo
44%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
32%
IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
84%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
55%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
28%
IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
66%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
29%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
72%
IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.96 · 21 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.84 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 1.88 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.86

IFK Varnamo attack 1.19 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more
56%
level
23%
IFK Varnamo scores more
22%

Djurgardens IF at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
P. TherkildsenDjurgardens IFDjurgardens IF · D
8.2

Match Events

17'
D. Hümmet↳ T. Nguen
24'
Frank Junior Adjei
31'
J. Une Larsson← M. Tenho
42'
Besard Sabović
46'
A. Ekdal← B. Šabović
63'
M. Alsalkhadi← F. Adjei
71'
O. Fallenius← T. Nguen
71'
P. Åslund← G. Wikheim
71'
A. Lohikangas← A. Zeljkovic
71'
S. Thern← H. Näsström
83'
Mohammad Alsalkhadi
84'
H. Radetinac← D. Hümmet
90+4'
Albin Ekdal
90+2'
C. Johansson← J. Kalu

Possession

43%Djurgardens

Shots

12Djurgardens

Pass accuracy

48%Djurgardens

Statistics

DjurgardensIFK
Overview
43%Possession57%
12Total Shots11
1.24Expected Goals (xG)0.83
2Corners6
23Fouls17
Shots
12Total Shots11
5On Target3
3Off Target5
4Blocked3
7Inside Box8
5Outside Box3
Passing
43%Possession57%
436Total Passes562
349Accurate Passes485
80%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
23Fouls17
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo

Djurgardens IF beat IFK Varnamo 1-0 in Allsvenskan on July 14, 2024.

Goals: D. Hümmet (17').

IFK Varnamo controlled possession (57%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Tele2 Arena in Stockholm.