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IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF — Allsvenskan 2026

IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
M. Antonsson 77'
R. Mohammed 57'
A. Zeljkovic 8' (pen)
D. Sundgren 71'
S. Ohlsson 29'
8/18/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 20Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

IFK Varnamo44%
×Draw25%
Degerfors IF31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Varnamo
1.54
Degerfors IF
1.27

IFK Varnamo creates 21% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 65 away

creates per match

IFK Varnamo
1.02
Degerfors IF
1.08

allows per match

IFK Varnamo
1.46
Degerfors IF
2.06

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par
Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

Degerfors IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw
69%
IFK Varnamo or Degerfors IF
75%
Draw or Degerfors IF
56%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
22%
Degerfors IF wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
79%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
45%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
20%
Degerfors IF 1+ goals
72%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
36%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
58%
Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 61 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.06 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.02 + Degerfors IF defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.54

Degerfors IF attack 1.08 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more
44%
level
25%
Degerfors IF scores more
31%

IFK Varnamo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "IFK Varnamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
R. MohammedIFK VarnamoIFK Varnamo · D
8.7

Match Events

8'
A. ZeljkovicPenalty
12'
Rufai Mohammed
29'
S. Ohlsson
43'
Johan Rapp
45+1'
S. Ohlsson← N. Girmai
46'
V. Larsson← J. Rapp
46'
M. Antonsson← C. Johansson
46'
M. Lundgren← E. Barsoum
57'
R. Mohammed↳ E. Grozdanic
61'
M. Alsalkhadi← N. Shamoun
69'
Nasiru Moro
71'
D. Sundgren
77'
M. Antonsson↳ A. Bjornstrom
78'
Z. Salifu← M. Rafferty
80'
H. Andersson← A. Zeljkovic
80'
S. Coulibaly← A. Bjornstrom
83'
A. Fisic← S. Ohlsson
90+1'
Mamadouba Diaby

Possession

54%IFK

Shots

15IFK

Pass accuracy

51%IFK

Statistics

IFKDegerfors
Overview
54%Possession46%
15Total Shots17
1.65Expected Goals (xG)1.56
5Corners10
7Fouls10
Shots
15Total Shots17
5On Target3
4Off Target8
6Blocked6
12Inside Box11
3Outside Box6
Passing
54%Possession46%
434Total Passes344
342Accurate Passes258
79%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Match Recap: IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF

IFK Varnamo beat Degerfors IF 3-2 in Allsvenskan on August 18, 2025.

Goals: A. Zeljkovic (8' pen), S. Ohlsson (29'), R. Mohammed (57'), D. Sundgren (71'), M. Antonsson (77').

IFK Varnamo controlled possession (54%) and registered 15 shots to 17.

The match was played at Finnvedsvallen in Varnamo.