IFK Varnamo 0–1 Degerfors IF: Result & Stats

IFK Varnamo

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Degerfors IF

8/14/2023

Allsvenskan · Round 19Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

IFK Varnamo44%

×Draw25%

Degerfors IF31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK VarnamoExpected goals in this matchDegerfors IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.27

IFK Varnamo

1.54

Degerfors IF

1.27

IFK Varnamo creates 21% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 65 away

1.02

creates per match

1.08

1.46

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

IFK Varnamo

1.02

Degerfors IF

1.08

allows per match

IFK Varnamo

1.46

Degerfors IF

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

Degerfors IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw

69%

IFK Varnamo or Degerfors IF

75%

Draw or Degerfors IF

56%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

22%

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

79%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

45%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

20%

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

72%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

36%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

58%

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 61 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.06 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.02 + Degerfors IF defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.54

Degerfors IF attack 1.08 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more

44%

level

25%

Degerfors IF scores more

31%

IFK Varnamo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "IFK Varnamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff