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IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF — Svenska Cupen 2019

IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
2/22/2025Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Ljusseveka 8 Värnamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

IFK Varnamo27%
×Draw21%
Degerfors IF52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Varnamo
1.51
Degerfors IF
2.17

Degerfors IF creates 44% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 17 away

creates per match

IFK Varnamo
1.38
Degerfors IF
2.59

allows per match

IFK Varnamo
1.75
Degerfors IF
1.65

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par
Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

Degerfors IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw
48%
IFK Varnamo or Degerfors IF
79%
Draw or Degerfors IF
73%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
12%
Degerfors IF wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
78%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
44%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
19%
Degerfors IF 1+ goals
89%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
64%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
34%
Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 2.59, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.38 + Degerfors IF defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.51

Degerfors IF attack 2.59 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more
27%
level
21%
Degerfors IF scores more
52%

Degerfors IF at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: IFK Varnamo 2–3 Degerfors IF

Degerfors IF beat IFK Varnamo 3-2 in Svenska Cupen on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Ljusseveka 8 Värnamo in Värnamo.