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Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo — Allsvenskan 2018

Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
4/6/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 2Stora Valla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Degerfors IF37%
×Draw26%
IFK Varnamo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Degerfors IF
1.38
IFK Varnamo
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 61 away

creates per match

Degerfors IF
1.06
IFK Varnamo
1.28

allows per match

Degerfors IF
1.48
IFK Varnamo
1.69

finishing

Degerfors IF+0.00on par
IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

IFK Varnamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw
63%
Degerfors IF or IFK Varnamo
74%
Draw or IFK Varnamo
63%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+
17%
IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals
75%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
40%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
16%
IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
75%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
40%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
50%
IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.48 · 67 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.69 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 1.06 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.38

IFK Varnamo attack 1.28 + Degerfors IF defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Degerfors IF scores more
37%
level
26%
IFK Varnamo scores more
37%

Degerfors IF at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Degerfors IF 1–0 IFK Varnamo

Degerfors IF beat IFK Varnamo 1-0 in Allsvenskan on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stora Valla in Degerfors.