IFK Norrkoping 2–3 IFK Goteborg: Result & Stats

IFK Norrkoping

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

IFK Goteborg

M. Watson 45'

C. Nyman 41'

M. Fenger 85' (pen), 76'

S. Clemmensen 61'

4/24/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 5Platinumcars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

IFK Norrkoping40%

×Draw25%

IFK Goteborg35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK NorrkopingExpected goals in this matchIFK Goteborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.40

IFK Norrkoping

1.52

IFK Goteborg

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.32

creates per match

1.05

1.74

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

IFK Norrkoping

1.32

IFK Goteborg

1.05

allows per match

IFK Norrkoping

1.74

IFK Goteborg

1.72

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

IFK Norrkoping-0.18scores less

IFK Goteborg+0.20scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Norrkoping ↓

IFK Goteborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

IFK Norrkoping or draw

65%

IFK Norrkoping or IFK Goteborg

75%

Draw or IFK Goteborg

60%

Winning margin

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+

20%

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals

78%

IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals

45%

IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals

20%

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals

75%

IFK Goteborg 2+ goals

41%

IFK Goteborg 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)

54%

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Norrkoping at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.74 · 7 matches

IFK Goteborg away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.72 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.32 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.52

IFK Goteborg attack 1.05 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

IFK Norrkoping scores more

40%

level

25%

IFK Goteborg scores more

35%

IFK Norrkoping at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Fenger

IFK Goteborg · F

8.3

Match Events

-5'

22'

22'

32'

36'

David Moberg Karlsson

41'

C. Nyman↳ I. Sigurgeirsson

45'

M. Watson↳ C. Nyman

49'

Moutaz Neffati

56'

August Erlingmark

59'

S. Clemmensen← I. Jagne

61'

S. Clemmensen↳ E. Markovic

63'

Yahya Kalley

66'

K. Peprah← Y. Kalley

66'

S. Jorgensen← A. Bronner

76'

T. Prica← D. Karlsson

76'

M. Fenger↳ T. Heintz

77'

Felix Eriksson

85'

M. FengerPenalty

87'

A. Carlen← K. Thordarson

87'

T. Santos← E. Markovic

90+9'

Jesper Ceesay

90+5'

Pontus Dahlberg

90+6'

A. Trondsen← T. Heintz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IFKIFK

Overview

43%Possession57%

12Total Shots17

5Corners11

16Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots17

5On Target5

5Off Target7

2Blocked5

7Inside Box12

5Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

326Total Passes418

242Accurate Passes321

74%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls12

6Yellow Cards5